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The Canadian insider blog discusses news and insight found among insider and significant shareholder filings in Canada.
 
Ted Dixon is co-founder and CEO of INK Research. He is the creator of the INK Canadian Insider Index, and is the editor of the daily Morning INK and weekly Market INK reports. He is a regular contributor to the Globe and Mail's Globe Investor pages and has also worked as a part-time lecturer in corporate finance at the British Columbia Institute of Technology. Before starting INK, he worked at the Connor, Clark & Lunn Financial Group where his responsibilities included portfolio strategy and product development. He has also been an analyst at the Fraser Institute and a treasury specialist at the TD Bank. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of CFA Vancouver. He holds an MBA in Financial Management from the University of Chicago, and a Bachelor of Commerce from UBC. Listen to his weekly economic commentary on Vancouver's Roundhouse Radio FM 98.3.
 
Victor Wong is a business and client development associate at Canadian Insider and an avid market watcher.
 
Nicholas Winton contributes technical commentaries on the INK Canadian Insider Index. Nicholas also writes the High on the Hog blog.

 

 

Climbing real yields continue to test the mettle of gold mining insiders

While gold stocks made up some lost ground last week with the S&P/TSX Gold Index rising 1.6%, it lagged both the INK Canadian Insider Index (+2.2%) and the broad S&P/TSX Composite (+2.1%). As we explain in our November INK Top 20 Gold stock report Will Trump times be tough times for gold miners (also vailable in our PDF store) following the Trump win we believe the direction of real yields in the United States may well determine the fortunes of gold miners over the next few months.

INK Canadian Insider Index Rebounds, Faces Heavy Resistance

Thank you for joining us in a weekly technical look at the mid-cap oriented INK Canadian Insider (CIN) Index.  The Index was heavily oversold at the time of our last update which followed the US election, and we weren't surprised to see it rally last week, gaining 24 points or 2% to close at 1111.60. 

With Trump elected, will insider sentiment continue to move higher?

American insiders took advantage of falling share prices in the first week of November to increase their buying. Our INK US Indicator moved up to the 37% level, up from 30% last week. At 37% there are 37 stocks with key insider buying for every 100 with selling. Most encouraging was the uptick in sentiment among Industrials insiders. Our Industrials Indicator was back above 20% on Monday. Typically, when the indicator is below the 20% mark, the sector experiences weakness over the following 6 months.

Insiders bracing for slower US growth

Throughout the US election campaign, the prevailing chatter in the Canadian media was along the lines that Donald Trump could not possibly win, but in the unlikely event that he did, disaster would be the assured outcome. In fact, there are pockets of the Canadian economy that could win under a Trump administration, particularly if the GOP maintain control of Congress.

Is Poloz willing to sacrifice housing and free enterprise with negative rates?

Updated - includes link to Roundhouse Radio interview. The foundation of a free market is a unfettered price of money: the interest rate that borrowers are willing to pay savers to complete a transaction. In a true free market, this is determined by the interaction between the borrowers and lenders. However, a free market in short-term rates has not existed since the introduction of modern central banking which, through legislation, gives these institutions the power to set overnight rates. More recently, the world's major central banks have been surprisingly successful at manipulating longer-dated interest rates through massive asset purchases or "QE."

Poloz forced to admit responsibility in driving up home prices at Senate testimony

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz admits in testimony before the Senate Committee on Banking, Trade, and Commerce that it is the Bank of Canada's low rates, and not China, that is primarily responsible for inflated housing prices. In refreshing and remarkably direct questioning on October 19, 2016, Committee Chairman David Tkachuk asks, "aren't we at fault for the ease of people getting into a house, and it's driving the prices up?" The central bank chief's answer surprised me. He says it is indeed true.

Sound bites: Insiders snapping up low priced gold shares

In my latest interview with Jim Goddard, I summarize the key themes of our October Gold Top 20 report which includes evidence that insiders have been buying the dip in gold stocks. Indeed, our INK Gold Indicator continues to rise and is now above 100% meaning there are more gold stocks with officer and director buying than stocks with similar selling. In contrast, mid-summer the indicator dipped to 50% when there were twice as many gold stocks with insider sales than buys. 

Sound bites: Insiders buying at Equitable Group, selling in Energy

In the first part of my October 4th interview with Jim Goddard, I discuss the recent housing policy changes announced by Finance Minister Bill Morneau. The stock prices of smaller mortgage lenders have taken a big hit since the news, including INK Canadian Insider Index members Equitable Group (INK Edge outlook: mixed; EQB) and First National Financial (INK Edge outlook: mostly sunny; FN). We noted in our Wednesday Morning INK report that Equitable Group now has a mixed INK Edge outlook, which, if maintained, would push it out of our Index during the November rebalancing (at which point a constituent stock must have a mostly sunny or sunny outlook to remain). However, a director bought during Wednesday's plunge, suggesting that the stock still has a fighting chance to retain its index membership.

Energy insiders pump up their holdings after the Fed

Two days after the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve meetings, three Energy stocks top the list in terms of beneficial ownership dollar buying among insiders. Using the screening function in CIA Interactive, I filtered to see which issuers between September 21st and 22nd had the most insider beneficial ownership (types D and I) buying in the public market (code 10).

Sound bites: declining oil market share and rising long-term rates

In my Tuesday interview with Jim Goddard, I discuss the latest Market INK report which reviews how insiders are positioned going into the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve meetings this week. Importantly, insiders are taking a cautious approach and are not chasing after yield.

Gold stock insiders have been buying and we discuss what it might take to get bullion moving again: greater allocation to precious metals among large institutions. Meanwhile, the prospect of a rumoured Indian Rupee devaluation appears unlikely to be a source of gold weakness this fall.

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