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The Canadian insider blog discusses news and insight found among insider and significant shareholder filings in Canada.
 
Ted Dixon is co-founder and CEO of INK Research. He is the creator of the INK Canadian Insider Index, and is the editor of the daily Morning INK and weekly Market INK reports. He is a regular contributor to the Globe and Mail's Globe Investor pages and has also worked as a part-time lecturer in corporate finance at the British Columbia Institute of Technology. Before starting INK, he worked at the Connor, Clark & Lunn Financial Group where his responsibilities included portfolio strategy and product development. He has also been an analyst at the Fraser Institute and a treasury specialist at the TD Bank. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of CFA Vancouver. He holds an MBA in Financial Management from the University of Chicago, and a Bachelor of Commerce from UBC. Listen to his weekly economic commentary on Vancouver's Roundhouse Radio FM 98.3.
 
Victor Wong is a business and client development associate at Canadian Insider and an avid market watcher.
 
Nicholas Winton contributes technical commentaries on the INK Canadian Insider Index. Nicholas also writes the High on the Hog blog.

 

 

Top 10 Shorts: Bets rise against Paramount Resources

Shorts have Paramount Resources in their crosshairs based on Thursday's IIROC short report. The stock has seen its short position jump by 987,869 shares and now totals 7,352,444 shares representing 10.3% of the stock's float. The short data is as of March 15th as reported by market participants to IIROC.

Lousy productivity keeps inflation risk alive

With the Fed expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting today, short of a surprise hawkish approach towards inflation, we suspect factors other than changes in monetary policy will be driving gold stocks for the foreseeable future. With that in mind, we thought our comments contained in the March Top 20 Gold Stock report remain timely for investors.

Insights: Glass half full or half empty?

When it comes to the potential for stock market gains for the rest of the year, is the glass half full or half empty? We tackle the issue in this week's Canadian Insider Insights newsletter. We suggest that the optimists may have one important factor going their way.

To get our take on what that might be, click here to read the latest edition of our weekly newsletter for free. It is even better than free because no registration is required.

Sequential sell for crude oil, and bullish outlook for gold shares

In his March 15th Howe Street broadcast, Bob Hoye from ChartsandMarkets.com reports that his firm issued a sequential sell on crude oil Friday. This follows a sequential sell they issued in late February for the S&P 500. The index subsequently fell about 2% within two weeks before rebounding which Hoye says was accompanied by some short-term term trading buy signals.

US OIl Fund ETF (Click for larger)

At this point, Hoye still believes there will be a stock market correction, but it is uncertain how far it will go.

US Industrials insider sentiment a big concern

In my latest Howe Street interview with Jim Goddard I assess the likelihood that we are heading into a recession. While we may not be there yet, I explain that insider sentiment in the US Industrials sector is flashing a warning sign.

I also highlight how we have relatively bleak outlooks on Canada's two major railway stocks, noting insider selling has been taking place even as the companies have been buying back shares. That is a combination we do not like to see.

Will Nevada turn cold for exploration?

In his March 12th Discovery Watch broadcast, John Kaiser from Kaiser Research Online addresses the question about the future of junior mining exploration in Nevada in wake of the announced deal between Barrick Gold (ABX) and Newmont Mining (NEM) to pool their assets in the state into one giant joint-venture.

Barrick-Newmont joint venture map (click for larger)

 

He also suggests keeping a close eye on expected news from Midland Exploration (MD)'s Mythril project in the James Bay area of Quebec and PJX Resources (PJX)'s Vine Property.

North American insiders signal that stocks face heavy resistance

 There appears to be a consensus among insiders that stocks are likely to face significant resistance at current levels. On Monday, we suggested that insiders were signalling that 1,160 would be a tough nut the crack for the INK Canadian Insider Index. We see the same dynamic playing out in US markets.

Stalling insider sentiment suggests stocks may have a hard time advancing

Like our Canadian-focused INK Indicator, our US Indicator is also levelling off. Such bottoming behaviour often takes place near significant resistance points. As a result, we expect 2,800 on the S&P 500 will be hard to crack in the short-term. If we are wrong, and stocks move higher in the days ahead, it would likely signal a return to a big-stock momentum-investing playbook. That said, we would not bet on that outcome.

Insights: Holding pattern, but what's next?

This week in Insights, we tackle the question of what is next for Canadian stocks after a nice run in the first two months of the year. For clues, we look to our INK Sentiment Indicator which is showing some signs of potential weakness.

Click for larger

We also highlight our Broadcast of the week and Insider of the Week. Click here to read the March 11th edition (registration not required).

King dollar is no friend of the bull market

Since Bob Hoye from Chartsandmarkets.com issued a sequential sell signal to listeners of his evening February 22nd broadcast, the S&P 500 has fallen 1.9%. In this week's broadcast he characterizes the late December sell-off as having "changed a lot of the magic in the markets", but suggests it is still not known whether the recent decline of the past two weeks will head to new lows.

 

Hoye: A rising US dollar is not a friend of the market

In that regard, the strength of the US dollar has the market historian concerned.

Are short bets set to send Barrick soaring?

We have been digging through the latest IIROC bi-weekly short report looking for nuggets of opportunity. By assessing the combination of short positioning and insider commitment in stocks, we are typically able to spot some bullish or bearish signals.

Click for larger

In the latest IIROC report which covers the period between February 16th to 28th, Barrick Gold (Mostly Sunny; ABX) caught our attention.

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