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The Canadian insider blog discusses news and insight found among insider and significant shareholder filings in Canada.
 
Ted Dixon is co-founder and CEO of INK Research. He is the creator of the INK Canadian Insider Index, and is the editor of the daily Morning INK and weekly Market INK reports. He is a regular contributor to the Globe and Mail's Globe Investor pages and has also worked as a part-time lecturer in corporate finance at the British Columbia Institute of Technology. Before starting INK, he worked at the Connor, Clark & Lunn Financial Group where his responsibilities included portfolio strategy and product development. He has also been an analyst at the Fraser Institute and a treasury specialist at the TD Bank. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of CFA Vancouver. He holds an MBA in Financial Management from the University of Chicago, and a Bachelor of Commerce from UBC. Listen to his weekly economic commentary on Vancouver's Roundhouse Radio FM 98.3.
 
Victor Wong is a business and client development associate at Canadian Insider and an avid market watcher.
 
Nicholas Winton contributes technical commentaries on the INK Canadian Insider Index. Nicholas also writes the High on the Hog blog.

 

 

Weekly Sound Bite: Mining mania: sell in May?

When we started our weekly Roundhouse Radio commentary on January 14th, I suggested that with Federal Reserve Bank policy and related outcomes more uncertain, the case for investors to hold some gold stocks in their portfolios had strengthened. Since that broadcast, the iShares S&P/TSX Global Gold Index ETF (XGD) is up a whopping 64%, while the junior Venture Exchange Index is up 32% (as of Wednesday). In the weeks following the first commentary, I told listeners to keep an eye on the U.S. Dollar Index.

Weekly sound bite: As stocks get more expensive, some could win under a Trump presidency

Insider sentiment is cooling off sharply as the broad US market as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY*US) has risen about 10% over the past three months. Although the S&P 500 has not made new all-time highs in 2016, it is within striking distance of its all-time high of 2,134.70 set in May last year. While stocks could take-out that high-water mark shortly, insider sentiment is slipping in the three most economy-sensitive sectors: Energy, Basic Materials and Industrials. Therefore, it is not surprising that our overall US Market Indicator is also falling and is now below the 50% mark. At 50%, there are twice as many stocks with key insider sales as buys. With sentiment sliding, we have the US market on watch for a possible downgrade to overvalued based on insider sentiment.

Weekly sound bite: Doha's failure revealing that inflation is far from dead

On Sunday in Doha, major oil exporting countries failed to come to an agreement with respect to limiting production. Despite the collapse in talks, oil has bounced back from its initial sell-off early Monday. It appears that Doha's failure is actually giving our theme that growth may surprise on the upside a boost. With oil production still going full-steam ahead outside of the United States, there must be something at work to keep prices from collapsing.

Weekly Sound Bite: Stocks showing possible breakout and Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Report has a glaring omission

Toronto stocks appear to be at a decision point of having to pick between a breakout or breakdown. Both the mid-cap oriented INK Canadian Insider (CIN) and S&P/TSX Composite indices have been flirting with their 200-day moving averages for some time. As we start the trading day Thursday, it looks like stocks want to move higher with both indices trading above their long-term averages. In fact, the INK CIN Index has closed above its 200-day average for 3 days in a row.

INK Edge April Top Gold & Precious Metals: Juniors shine as Fed shifts to avoid a Riksbank scenario

Our latest Gold Top 20 is now out. While most of the stocks on the list have already appeared in this month's INK Edge Top 40, this month's Gold Top 20 is a must read for those investing in the junior market. It may well be our most important commentary yet, following up on our November report which foreshadowed the massive move we have seen in the S&P/TSX Venture Index.

Weekly Sound Bite: Looking for signs that the global economy may surprise on the upside

For the past year or so we have been getting used to bad news on the world economy with the IMF, OECD, and the Fed taking a downbeat view on world growth, particularly China. However, North American insiders have not been so negative recently.

Turning pet rocks into golden opportunity

On July 17th of last year, a Wall Street Journal blogger wrote that gold was little more than a pet rock. While that blog post did not mark the exact bottom in major gold stocks, it was pretty close. Since the pet rock story was published, the iShares S&P/TSX Global Gold Index Fund ETF (XGD) has advanced more than 30%. While a period of consolidation cannot be ruled out after such a run, insiders are signalling that mining stocks are where the biggest gains could be made over the next year or so.

Weekly Sound Bite: The loonie goes out like a lion

It took longer than I expected, but the loonie is now trading about one U.S. cent higher than when Justin Trudeau took over as Prime Minister on November 4th of last year. On Thursday the Canadian dollar was worth 77.11 U.S. cents according to Thomson Reuters data. So can Justin Trudeau and his Finance Minister Bill Morneau take credit for the loonie's comeback?

Number Cruncher: These 15 stocks mix value, price momentum, insider buying

What are we looking for?

We are just over halfway to the next the INK Canadian Insider Index semi-annual rebalancing to be implemented on May 20th. A stock already in the Index before the rebalancing date stays so long as it is in the top 30% of all stocks ranked on the basis of our INK Edge V.I.P. criteria (valuations, insider commitment and price momentum). Today, we want to get a sense of the stocks that are candidates to replace any drop-outs from the 50-stock index which is used by the Horizons Canadian Insider Index ETF (HII). To see which names are in top contention for index inclusion, we screen for the top-15 ranked TSX stocks using our V.I.P. criteria.

INK Canadian Insider Index moves above 20 and 50 DMAs

Thank you for joining us in a weekly technical look at the mid-cap oriented INK Canadian Insider (CIN) Index. Last week proved a very significant week for the Index as it not only completed a bullish double bottom pattern at 900 but the Index also went on to blast through a major area of congestion which included its 20 and 50 day moving averages at 933 and 951 respectively.

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