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As recession risk looms, Kaiser sees gold more likely to hit $3,500 than $500

In his latest broadcast, John Kaiser from Kaiser Research Online makes the case that gold can breakout to $3,500. Speaking to Jim Goddard, the resource analyst suggests fundamental, technical and financial self preservation factors may come together to push gold higher. 

As a recession signal heats up, cryptos are beating gold as a safe haven

In my May 23rd interview with Jim Goddard I tackle some key themes that we have been developing over the past week. I start off the broadcast highlighting the warning sign being sent by the losing streak of the mid-cap-oriented INK Canadian Insider Index versus the large-cap S&P/TSX 60 Index. As we display in the chart below, the INK CIN has not underperformed the 60 this long since the lead up to the great financial crisis.

Lousy productivity keeps inflation risk alive

With the Fed expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting today, short of a surprise hawkish approach towards inflation, we suspect factors other than changes in monetary policy will be driving gold stocks for the foreseeable future. With that in mind, we thought our comments contained in the March Top 20 Gold Stock report remain timely for investors.

Upbeat Canadian insiders

Starting in the second segment of his latest interview with Jim Goddard, INK CEO Ted Dixon gives an overview of the outlook for Canadian stocks drawing on the most recent Insights weekly newsletter. Broadly speaking, insiders remain upbeat about their prospects going forward, particularly in the oil patch where stocks have undergone a correction to reflect commodity pricing troubles.

He does, however, highlight a warning sign.

Sound bites: Insiders run to resources as geo-tensions rise

On Tuesday, the world will get the first serious insight into the Trump administration's priorities when the president addresses a joint session of congress. We got a hint of what may be in that speech when the New York Times wrote Sunday that the president will be asking for a major jump in defence spending. That news comes on the heels of further reports on the weekend from Reuters that China is investing heavily in naval capabilities to beef up its territorial claims in the South China and East China seas.

Sound bites: Dippers Become Swingers

In my latest interview with Jim Goddard at Howestreet.com, I explain the key investing theme in our latest US Market INK report: the sea change facing investors after the election of Donald Trump. 

Climbing real yields continue to test the mettle of gold mining insiders

While gold stocks made up some lost ground last week with the S&P/TSX Gold Index rising 1.6%, it lagged both the INK Canadian Insider Index (+2.2%) and the broad S&P/TSX Composite (+2.1%). As we explain in our November INK Top 20 Gold stock report Will Trump times be tough times for gold miners (also vailable in our PDF store) following the Trump win we believe the direction of real yields in the United States may well determine the fortunes of gold miners over the next few months.

Sound bites: Insiders snapping up low priced gold shares

In my latest interview with Jim Goddard, I summarize the key themes of our October Gold Top 20 report which includes evidence that insiders have been buying the dip in gold stocks. Indeed, our INK Gold Indicator continues to rise and is now above 100% meaning there are more gold stocks with officer and director buying than stocks with similar selling. In contrast, mid-summer the indicator dipped to 50% when there were twice as many gold stocks with insider sales than buys. 

50 Slides for Gold Bulls - The New Incrementum Chart Book

A Companion Update to this Year's "In Gold We Trust" Report

Our good friends Ronnie Stoeferle and Mark Valek of Incrementum AG have just published a new chart book, which recaps and updates charts originally shown in this year's 10th anniversary edition of the "In Gold We Trust" report and provides an overview of recent developments relevant to the gold market. The chart book can be downloaded in PDF form via the link at the end of this post.

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Post Jackson Hole uncertainty to eventually support gold stocks

 

An excerpt from the Market INK distributed to Canadian Insider Club members and INK Research subscribers August 29th.

Uncertainty is the clear standout image from Yellen's Friday speech as depicted in the megaphone-like chart (Figure 1) she provided showing the confidence range of policymaker Fed Funds forecasts over the next two years. The range appears to span from 0.125% to 4.5%, with 0.125% being the lower bound cut-off (editor's note: the Fed picked the yellow colour for the chart). While the Fed chair did not hand out diagrams for other forecasts such as inflation, one can only assume similar blow-out ranges would also be the story.

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