Blogs

Today, we look at a battery metals stock that could be set to join the liquidity party. But first, we have a fantastic interview with Dr. Kayvon Modjarrad, director of the Emerging Infectious Diseases Program at Walter Reed Army Institute of Research. Ash Bennington gets Dr. Modjarrad to explain where we are in the global COVID-19 vaccine development cycle and what the components will be of a successful campaign to defeat the virus. Dr. Modjarrad provides a take on the timelines for a potential vaccine rollout while also suggesting that it will take more than a vaccine to win the day.

On Wednesday, we published our bearish case for American stocks based on insider signals. Today, we have come across a strong bullish response from Tyler Neville who explains that some institutions really do not have any alternative but to buy right now. He makes three controversial points starting with the assumption that, like it or not, flows are driving the stock market rally.

(Originally published on July 8, 2020)  - Today we are going to focus strictly on interpreting what our US insider sentiment indicators are now signalling. Our key US Indicator which measures sentiment towards the average stock in America has firmly established a bottoming pattern. That means insider buying has bottomed out, typically a short-term bearish signal as such a pattern often happens near market tops. Moreover, we have seen above-average insider profit-taking in dollar terms. This has taken place right before many firms enter insider trading blackout periods. In plain English, that means insiders are taking money off the table while the going is good.

The major risk to our bearish signal is the possibility that insiders are early. Last week, we suggested that the June 8th S&P 500 high of 3,233.13 is going to be a tough nut to crack. We still believe that to be the case. However, we cannot rule out one last gasp higher before a correction. From current levels, we expect, at best, average real returns from US stocks over the next year.

Today, Real Vision turns its attention to China. Ed Harrison interviews George Magnus, research associate for the China Centre at Oxford University, who assesses the situation in China and what it means for investors. Watch the premium video here.

INK is keeping tabs on mining COVID-19 risks
 

Meanwhile, INK is going full blown contrarian on COVID-19 as chatter builds in the markets that the disease no longer matters. As a case in point, this morning I read a piece from a large fully-licensed-in-China financial services firm touting herd immunity and advising investors to position for growth.

Deflation-oriented D-economy stocks are left behind in this month's Top 40 Stock Report. At the stock level, insiders are betting on an inflationary environment ahead. Like last month, mining stocks dominate the list. Read the report to see which stocks have raced up our rankings. The report is available free for Canadian Insider Club members. Non-member can purchase the report  in the Canadian Insider store.

G-economy stocks fueled by inflation expectations
 

On INK Ultra Money INK Research sticks with its COVID-19 matters in mining theme, looking at the top ranked stock in this month's Top 40 report which is operating in Nevada. Fortunately for the mining industry, much of Nevada has avoided the fate of its next-door neighbour Arizona. Club members can watch the premium video summary of today's morning report here.

If Dr. Z. Barton Wang of Barton Research is right, here comes a big flood of cash into the markets. While we have seen lots of stimulus money hit financial markets over the past few months, we could see the gush of liquidity become even more forceful as the Treasury picks up spending from its Treasury General Account this week. This is a riveting Real Vision premium interview that provides some eye-opening insight to what is going on.

Treasury lets loose (click to watch the interview)

Dr. Wang also gives us his take on COVID-19 which he believes will lead to a very slow recovery, but housing and building materials should lead. The interview is a nice complement to our Monday market update for Canadian Insider Club members Nova Scotia to the rescue as global COVID-19 cases and stocks surge?

Thank you for joining us in a weekly technical look at the mid-cap oriented INK Canadian Insider (CIN) Index. After several weeks of strong downward momentum, the Index again faced some pressure last week but held strong above 920. By week's end, it shot up 33.36 points or 3.6% to 956.72.

Heading into the weekend we have a fantastic Real Vision episode with dollar bear Ben Melkman who is interviewed by dollar bull Raoul Pal. It makes for a great conversation where Ben does a good job challenging Raoul's dollar shortage thesis. Nevertheless, they find some common ground when it comes to gold which Ben describes as a high-quality bet. Ben also explains how the Fed is backing itself into a corner on the inflation front.

The latest Insights focuses on the junior mining V-shaped recovery. Our broadcast of the week looks at how investors can use insider data to avoid overhyped stocks with poor quality assets. Meanwhile, our insider of the week is from the oil patch and he as been buying the recent pause in Energy sector stocks.