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Playing Ball with the Fed

While stocks may be taking a breather today, Juliette Declercq, founder of JDI Research, has a generally upbeat outlook over the next few years. Her optimism is grounded in the notion that most global policy makers are quite happy with the Fed's game plan. There is one big risk she sees, however, and that may well be what is holding back stocks today. I really enjoyed this interview, and it is the best one that I have listened to from Real Vision this week.

Letting the Fed win the race to the FX bottom

Wednesday's free Real Vision Daily Briefing with Roger Hirst comes in at a close second for my pick of the week so far. The discussion centres primarily on the options market. Given that Friday is stock options expiration day, it is a timely and engaging discussion.

Insights: What a Biden presidency could mean for stocks

In the latest issue of Insights, we assess what a Biden presidency could mean for North American stocks. It is a topic I explore in depth with Jim Goddard in my latest Howe Street interview. The newsletter also highlights an interview with Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal who remains concerned about the outlook for markets. Click here to read.

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Volatility up, market up?

Matt Rowe is back on Real Vision with valuable insight into what happened in early September in the US markets when both volatility and stock prices rose together. Importantly, Matt explains what can be learned from last week's twists and turns and how to apply those lessons going forward. After listening to this interview, I had a better appreciation of what to watch in options markets and how to be positioned heading into year end.

INK Canadian Insider Index falls 3% alongside oil, US markets

Thank you for joining us in a weekly technical look at the mid-cap oriented INK Canadian Insider (CIN) Index. Last week, as US markets corrected, the Index finally followed its recently weakening RSI momentum indicator. The INK CIN tumbled 31.71 points or 3% to 1039.80.

INK Edge Ultra Money: Air pocket or something worse?

Yesterday, Real Vision's Ed Harrison provided a timely overview of the risks that options pose to Technology shares due to the role that institutions have been playing in managing exposure to the high-flying group. He explained that if the market starts to roll over, institutions would mechanically pick up their selling. If you have not listened to Ed's overview of option dynamics, it provides great insight into some of the factors at play in today's sell-off.

INK Ultra Money: Getting off the bond and tech band wagon

In June, Jay Pelosky, chief investment officer and co-founder of TPW Investment Management, appeared on INK Ultra Money in a Real Vision Daily Briefing and predicted a market rally through the summer. Today, he is back. While he is still bullish, the New York based advisor sees some big shifts happening, including the underperformance of US assets as the bond bull market comes to an end and tech loses its lustre.

INK Canadian Insider Index pauses as commodities climb

Thank you for joining us in a weekly technical look at the mid-cap oriented INK Canadian Insider (CIN) Index. Last week, the Index had a quiet week, as it remained in its tight trading range and added 4.61 points to close at 1071.51.

INK Ultra Money: Are long rates headed higher?

In a pre-Jackson Hole interview, bond strategist George Goncalves paints a picture for bond bears that depicts how long-bond Treasury yields could head higher in the weeks ahead. While 2021 may well be a different story, the amount of Treasury supply about to hit the market may reveal a Fed that is willing to let the long end of the bond market steepen.That is a theme we have been discussing in our reports, including the August 19th INK US Market Report (Will the bond vigilantes save the banks?).
 

 

Insights: Rebuilding a COVID-19 scarred world

In this week's free Insights newsletter, inflation-oriented stocks take a break after a strong run. Meanwhile, insiders shed some gold mining exposure in favour of builders. Finally, how our insider of the week might help get the TC Energy's Energy East Pipeline going again, and he is not even from the oil patch. Read the latest issue here.

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INK Ultra Money: Can kids help parents fend off the coronavirus; plus, rate risk for tech?

Getting long-term rates right is going to be critical for the rest of the year. Higher rates either due to increased Treasury supply or expectations of better economic growth should hurt long-duration assets such as Technology and Utilities sector stocks. I expect that gold could do well or poorly depending on whether rates are being driven by supply or economic growth. On Monday on Real Vision, Larry McDonald, New York Times bestselling author and founder of the Bear Traps Report, makes the case for higher yields, primarily on the back of increased supply.

 

Tech stocks are vulnerable to higher yields
 

Raoul Pal, who is skeptical about higher bond yields, conducts the interview with Larry, and that makes for fantastic dialogue delivering valuable insight into what could unfold in the months ahead.

Today, Mike Green interviews Christina Ramirez, professor of biostatistics at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, to discuss COVID-19 data. What comes clear in this interview is that the disease is likely getting less fatal as time goes by either by better medical practices or viral attenuation. Ramirez also provides a hypothesis that young children may help their parents fight off coronavirus infection. Click here to watch the premium interview.

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