Ted Dixon's blog

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Energy insiders pump up their holdings after the Fed

Two days after the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve meetings, three Energy stocks top the list in terms of beneficial ownership dollar buying among insiders. Using the screening function in CIA Interactive, I filtered to see which issuers between September 21st and 22nd had the most insider beneficial ownership (types D and I) buying in the public market (code 10).

Sound bites: declining oil market share and rising long-term rates

In my Tuesday interview with Jim Goddard, I discuss the latest Market INK report which reviews how insiders are positioned going into the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve meetings this week. Importantly, insiders are taking a cautious approach and are not chasing after yield.

Gold stock insiders have been buying and we discuss what it might take to get bullion moving again: greater allocation to precious metals among large institutions. Meanwhile, the prospect of a rumoured Indian Rupee devaluation appears unlikely to be a source of gold weakness this fall.

Sound bites: Other countries looking at "The Trudeau Formula"?

On Tuesday September 6th, I gave an interview with Jim Goddard on Howestreet.com where I discussed some of the themes in last week's Market INK report, "The new game in town: infrastructure and deficits." In particular, we could be in for a big sea change with respect to bond yields, and some institutional investors may not be prepared for it. If you have not read the report, you can download it for free here (CanadianInsider.com account log in required).

Post Jackson Hole uncertainty to eventually support gold stocks


An excerpt from the Market INK distributed to Canadian Insider Club members and INK Research subscribers August 29th.

Uncertainty is the clear standout image from Yellen's Friday speech as depicted in the megaphone-like chart (Figure 1) she provided showing the confidence range of policymaker Fed Funds forecasts over the next two years. The range appears to span from 0.125% to 4.5%, with 0.125% being the lower bound cut-off (editor's note: the Fed picked the yellow colour for the chart). While the Fed chair did not hand out diagrams for other forecasts such as inflation, one can only assume similar blow-out ranges would also be the story.

Sound bites: US banking insider sentiment crumbles ahead of key Yellen speech

There are more warning signs for a US market that spent has spent the summer hitting new all-time highs. Over the past few weeks we have been watching broad insider sentiment sink as stocks have moved higher. Banking insiders were the one group that offered some comfort to the bulls with our Banking Indicator remaining above the 100% mark, meaning there were more stocks in the group with key insider buying than there were with selling. However, in advance of Janet Yellen's Friday speech at the Kansas City Federal Reserve's end-of-summer symposium at Jackson Hole, the banking insider comfort zone is crumbling.

Sound Bites: US insiders flee as Fed officials feud over rates

According to FactSet, for the second quarter the blended earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -3.5% with 91% of the index companies reporting as of August 12th. That marks the first time the index has recorded five consecutive quarters of year-over-year earnings declines since the third quarter of 2009. Nevertheless, as earnings season winds down, investors are pushing broad US benchmarks to new all-time highs. Investors it seems are buying into the narrative that earnings will only get better from here.

Sound Bites: Value stocks in short supply on the TSX

August 10, 2016 - The long anticipated correction, or at least consolidation, in metals stocks appears to have started with the S&P/TSX Composite Gold down 0.5% in the week ended August 5th, and down 4.5% for the previous 30 days as of Friday. We started reporting to subscribers in May that insiders were positioning for a pullback noting that insiders had picked up their selling as we headed into summer which is a traditionally weak period for gold. Indeed, according to Equityclock.com, June and August tend to be the roughest months for the gold price before entering into a seasonally strong fall.

Sound Bites: Oil enters a bear market after a mixed verdict on Japanese stimulus (Update)

Updates number of mining stocks to 30 from 31 in third paragraph, adds that they are in the Basic Materials sector.

Japanese bonds and oil are shaky, should we worry? On Friday, Business Insider noted that oil had slipped into a bear market after falling 20% from its recent peak of just over US$51 per barrel. The move happened on the same day the Bank of Japan decided not to increase its bond purchases which dampened hopes for helicopter easing. While the two developments may not be directly related, falling oil and Japanese policy maneuvers both have implications for investors.

Sound Bites: What's next for global stock and Vancouver real estate markets?

July 27, 2016 - Yesterday the Federal Reserve released a non-controversial policy statement essentially saying that risks were not as high as last meeting (which took place right before Brexit) and that the labour market was showing some signs of strength. Essentially, it left itself enough wiggle room for the rest of the year to either raise rates, do nothing, or backtrack should the data turn south.

Sound Bites: Is the stimulus bullet train coming?

July 21, 2016 - Since the beginning of the month, gold stocks have been more or less flat on the back of better expected US growth. Another factor driving investors into riskier assets is the hope that Japan will deliver a double dose of monetary and fiscal policy stimulus following the triumph of the Liberal Democratic Party in recent elections. While we remain skeptical about the narrative surrounding a US recovery that will allow the Fed to hike rates sooner than expected, the moves in Japan could be meaningful.


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