Ted Dixon's blog

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Peak insider buying in Pharmaceuticals and cannabis stocks

As we wrote in our Monday market update, our 30-day Pharmaceuticals Indicator seems to have a decent ability to time the group's highs and lows. When the indicator peaks above 200%, it represents a strong peak in insider buying that has, at times, coincided with a base in stock prices. As of Tuesday, it appears the indicator has peaked at a level not seen since September 2017. This development should catch the interest of cannabis stock speculators as many of those companies are found in the Pharmaceuticals industry classification.

Is the Fed engineering a slow-motion train wreck?

Last month, we suggested the gold market faced one of two scenarios. The first was the case where the Fed came to the conclusion this month that it would have to stop tightening. The second was the scarier situation where the Fed continued to press ahead with its tightening mantra until something broke, such as the stock market.

Based on recent comments by FOMC chairman Jerome Powell, the Fed seems to be relying on the market to tell it when to stop tightening. If this is indeed the case, the central bank should probably put the brakes on hiking rates right now, at least if one of the markets they are watching is the implied inflation rate in Treasury yields.

Trying to build a base for the broad market and pot stocks

Although one week does not make a trend, given recent market carnage, the bulls can be forgiven if they point to some positive developments in the Canadian market last week. Nicholas Winton who writes a weekly technical outlook for the INK Canadian Insider Index noted in his Monday write up that the index (-0.8%) outperformed US markets last week, including the S&P 500 (-4.6%). We would add that the Index also outperformed the large-cap S&P/TSX 60 Index (-2.8%). Both developments are notable. In 2008, stocks outside the United States started to stabilize first. Meanwhile, as we explained in our November 19th report (Are we close to turning the corner?), we will have more confidence that the global selling tide is over once the INK CIN Index starts to outperform large-caps which are seen as a relative area of safety during growth scares.

Alexco Resource: Not just a silver optionality play for silver bugs

In the latest episode of Discovery Watch, responding to listener's question about Alexco Resource (AXR) John Kaiser notes that the company is working on a pre-feasibility study for its high-grade Keno Hill Silver District in the Yukon. However, given the project's economic dependence on a higher silver price, the prospect of a PFS sometime next year is not what excites Mr. Kaiser about the stock.

Still no insider confirmation of a bottom

Our INK US Indicator moved up slightly last week to 64% Wednesday, at which point there are 6.4 stocks with key insider buying for every 10 with selling. Given that the indicator is still on the rise, we have yet to see peak insider buying that typically occurs near market bottoms. Just as we see a lack of confirmation from our indicator that a durable floor has been established for stocks, we also fail to see confirmation from financial stocks.


Hoye: You can build the case that we are in the early stages of bear market

Bear market forces are building according market historian Bob Hoye from ChartsandMarkets.com. In his latest interview with Jim Goddard, Hoye points out that the world stocks outside of the US hit their highs in January, the month after the bitcoin bubble blew out. Those peaks foreshadowed the setup for a potential bear market in stocks.

Mish Shedlock sees more tariffs but fewer rate hikes on the way

Updated December 1st, 2018 (expands first quote to include possibility of a minor deal) - In his latest interview with Jim Goddard, economist Mish Shedlock suggests that the best outcome of the Trump-Xi dinner summit this weekend would be a minor deal that holds off on new tariffs for a while. However, the soft but outspoken economist doesn't expect a deal.

Did the Fed backtrack enough on rates?

All ears were listening to Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on monetary policy Wednesday for hints as to whether the central bank would be easing up on its rate hike plans. As explained in yesterday’s post, US stocks move into fair-valued territory, stocks are likely to face more downside pressure unless the Fed pulls back on its hawkish path. As it turns out, the Fed chairman suggested that interest rates were now very close to neutral:

US stocks move into fair-valued territory

Our US market indicator moved above 60% over the past week. At that point, there are 6 stocks with key insider buying for every 10 stocks with selling. Once the US indicator moves over 60%, it leaves the overvalued zone and crosses into fair-valued territory. Generally, a fair-valued reading implies that investors can expect average returns over the next few years from here. However, it does not rule out stocks going lower in the short-term and moving into undervalued territory. Indeed, for value-oriented investors, that would be the ideal buying scenario.

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More questions about Bombardier's ASDP insider filings

An INK Research review of filings by insiders at Bombardier (Unranked; BBD.B) for August 15th transactions relating to its announced Automatic Securities Dispositions Plan (ASDP) raises a number of questions with respect to ownership changes.


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