On today's episode of "On the Margin", Anonymous analyst Mr Blonde joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical forces driving markets in 2022.
We discuss the increasing recession signals and how they will effect earnings for the second half of 2022. With a rising dollar, 9.1% inflation, an increasingly hawkish Fed and the end of "peak liquidity", just how will all these forces effect equity markets throughout 2022? To find out, you'll have to tune!
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Referenced In The Show:
Housing IS the Business Cycle: https://www.nber.org/papers/w13428
The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks: https://blogs.tslombard.com/the-nightmare-scenario-for-central-banks?hss...
Current State of the Housing Market: https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/current-state-of-the-housing-marke...
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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.
Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3
Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:45 Rising Risk Of Recession
02:41 Heading For An Earnings Recession
04:09 We Entered 2022 With Peak Liquidity, Peak Valuations & Peak Earnings, What Next?
09:45 How Energy Has Impacted Earnings
18:08 What Is Happening In Credit?
22:52 The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks
31:01 Housing IS The Business Cycle
37:19 Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
