Heroux-Devtek (HRX)

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Insights: From Fed patience to action

In this week's edition of Canadian Insider Insights, we make the bearish case for stocks this summer based on insider sentiment. Meanwhile, get the take on the markets from a former Trump insider in our broadcast of the week. Finally, we highlight recent CEO buying in the oil patch. You can read our weekly newsletter here without registration.

Weekly sound bite: As stocks get more expensive, some could win under a Trump presidency

Insider sentiment is cooling off sharply as the broad US market as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY*US) has risen about 10% over the past three months. Although the S&P 500 has not made new all-time highs in 2016, it is within striking distance of its all-time high of 2,134.70 set in May last year. While stocks could take-out that high-water mark shortly, insider sentiment is slipping in the three most economy-sensitive sectors: Energy, Basic Materials and Industrials. Therefore, it is not surprising that our overall US Market Indicator is also falling and is now below the 50% mark. At 50%, there are twice as many stocks with key insider sales as buys. With sentiment sliding, we have the US market on watch for a possible downgrade to overvalued based on insider sentiment.

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