Bonds

In a pre-Jackson Hole interview, bond strategist George Goncalves paints a picture for bond bears that depicts how long-bond Treasury yields could head higher in the weeks ahead. While 2021 may well be a different story, the amount of Treasury supply about to hit the market may reveal a Fed that is willing to let the long end of the bond market steepen.That is a theme we have been discussing in our reports, including the August 19th INK US Market Report (Will the bond vigilantes save the banks?).
 

Treasurys to compete with the private sector

Here is what's new today on INK Ultra Money. All Canadian Insider users have access to today's free video and audio, while Canadian Insider Club Ultra members have access to all premium videos from Real Vision and INK Research. If you are not an Ultra member of the Canadian Insider Club, join today and save $99 on an Ultra membership every year (until you cancel) by using coupon code BLACKBOX at checkout (valid only for new Club memberships).

1. The Problem with Passive: Part II - Real Vision (free video)

 What happens to financial markets when passive strategies become the norm? This week, Drew breaks down the conversation between Mike Green and Raoul Pal to understand how massive that passive strategies are. The full version of this video was broadcast on INK Ultra Money December 11th.

Market structure has changed

2. In the Golden Triangle, insiders and Newmont bet on GT Gold - INK Research (free audio, Ultra subscriber video)

Here is what's new today on INK Ultra Money.

1. The inflation inflection point - Real Vision (subscriber video)
2. Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas insiders ride the waves - INK Research (subscriber video and free audio)

Canadian Insider Club members can get subscriber content by upgrading for the special rate of $99.99 per year (plus tax) via the Membership tab after logging in. If you are not a Club member, join now as an Ultra member. INK Research subscribers have access to both premium and free content.

Continue reading for summaries of each episode.

Here is what's new today on INK Ultra Money.

1. Peak Leverage at Peak Earnings - Real Vision (subscriber content)

Why are bonds and stocks sending conflicting signals at investors? Andrew Lapthorne, global head of quant research at Societe Generale, helps answer this question in his conversation with Roger Hirst. In this conversation, you’ll understand which markets have already priced in recession and why historically defensive assets may not appear as advertised. Lapthorne also dissects the connection between volatility and corporate spreads. Filmed on September 13, 2019 in London.

Lapthorne: Buybacks are subsidizing company wages

Here is what's new today on INK Ultra Money.

1. High yielding Plaza Retail is beating Amazon out in the open  - INK Research (subscriber content plus free audio)

In the September 24th Morning Report, INK Research focuses on Plaza Retail REIT (PLZ) which has outperformed retail juggernaut Amazon (AMZN) over the past year. The secret to the their success might be found outdoors.

Plaza CEO Michael Zakuta is showing conviction

There is a free audio download available below. Canadian Insider Club members can subscribe to Ultra Money via this website for the special rate of $99.99 per year (plus tax) for access to both subscriber and free content. INK Research is subscriber supported and we do not accept payments for stock coverage.

Here is what's new today on INK Ultra Money. INK Research CIA subscribers have full access to all Ultra Money videos including premium content. Non-INK subscribers can sign-up directly on INK Ultra Money or stay tuned for a special offer coming here soon.

1. Former Fed Insiders on Dollar Repo Madness - Real Vision (Subscriber content)

Is this just another mid-cycle adjustment like 1995? Danielle DiMartino Booth, chief strategist at Quill Intelligence, interviews George Goncalves of The Bond Strategist in his first appearance on Real Vision to tackle that question. But, that's just the start. These two former insiders at the Dallas Fed deconstruct the US Dollar liquidity problems and help clarify the major structural issues confronting the repo markets. Filmed on September 18, 2019 in New York.

Goncalves: a mini buyers strike is kind of forming

Here is what's new today on INK Ultra Money. All Canadian Insider users have access to free episodes from Real Vision. INK Research CIA subscribers have full access to all Ultra Money videos including premium content. Non-INK subscribers can sign-up directly on INK Ultra Money or stay tuned for a special offer coming here soon.

1. What the Fed Cut Means for the Treasury Trade - Real Vision (Free)

Tony Greer, editor in chief of The Morning Navigator, breaks down the FOMC’s decision to cut interest rates and discusses why he thinks it’s business as usual for markets. In this interview with Alex Rosenberg, Greer walks through the recent spikes in both oil prices and the repo market respectively, highlights the trade war’s impact on the bond market, and reviews where he expects the 10-year Treasury note to head next. Filmed on September 18, 2019.

Greer is bearish on bonds

Here is what's new today on INK Ultra Money.

1. Bonds: The Fed & Trade Wars - Real Vision (free content)

Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, updates his home-run trade on Treasuries and reviews his current outlook for recession. In this interview with Jake Merl, Sri highlights the upcoming FOMC meeting, discusses why the trade war is the main driver for the bond market, and notes his expectations for the 10-year Treasury yield. Filmed on September 17, 2019.

Komal Sri-Kumar: Trade war will influence direction of rates