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This blog publishes selected articles by Pater Tenebrarum, an independent analyst and economist/social theorist. He has been involved with financial markets in various capacities for 39 years and currently writes economic and market analyses for independent research organizations and a European hedge fund consultancy. He is the leading author on the Acting Man website where you can find comprehensive articles and authors with an Austrian School view on the world.

Bitcoin Facts

A Useful Infographic

When we last wrote more extensively about Bitcoin (see Parabolic Coin - evidently, it has become a lot more "parabolic" since then), we said we would soon return to the subject of Bitcoin and monetary theory in these pages. This long planned article was delayed for a number of reasons, one of which was that we realized that Keith Weiner's series on the topic would give us a good opportunity to address some of the objections to Bitcoin's fitness as a medium of exchange voiced by critics (we have kept the final three parts of Keith's discussion in abeyance as well, we intend to publish these concurrently).

Parabolic Coin

The Crypto-Bubble - A Speculator's Dream in Cyberspace

When writing an article about the recent move in bitcoin, one should probably not begin by preparing the chart images. Chances are one will have to do it all over again. It is a bit like ordering a cup of coffee in Weimar Germany in early November 1923. One had to pay for it right away, as a cup costing one wheelbarrow of Reichsmark may well end up costing two wheelbarrows of Reichsmark half an hour later. These days the question is how many wheelbarrows of US dollars one may need to pay for a bitcoin.

Gold Sector Correction - Where Do Things Stand?

Sentiment and Positioning

When we last discussed the gold sector correction (which had only just begun at the time), we mentioned we would update sentiment and positioning data on occasion. For a while, not much changed in these indicators, but as one would expect, last week's sharp sell-off did in fact move the needle a bit.

50 Slides for Gold Bulls - The New Incrementum Chart Book

A Companion Update to this Year's "In Gold We Trust" Report

Our good friends Ronnie Stoeferle and Mark Valek of Incrementum AG have just published a new chart book, which recaps and updates charts originally shown in this year's 10th anniversary edition of the "In Gold We Trust" report and provides an overview of recent developments relevant to the gold market. The chart book can be downloaded in PDF form via the link at the end of this post.

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Japan's planners ratchet up monetary experimentation

A Litany of Failures

It was widely expected that the BoJ would announce something this week after it promised to perform a comprehensive review of its monetary policy. It certainly did deliver a major tweak to its inflationary program, but its implications were seemingly not entirely clear to everybody (probably not even to the BoJ).

The Economy, the Stock Market and the Fed

John Hussman on Recent Developments

We always look forward to John Hussman's weekly missive on the markets. Some people say that he is a "permabear", but we don't think that is a fair characterization. He is rightly wary of the stock market's historically extremely high valuation and the loose monetary policy driving the surge in asset prices.

A Striking Chart

The Economy and the Stock Market

As long time readers know, we are always paying close attention to the manufacturing sector, which is far more important to the US economy than is generally believed. In terms of gross output it is the largest sector of the economy, and it should of course be obvious that saving, investment and production are the only ways to create wealth.

US Economy - Curious Pattern in ISM Readings

Head fake theory confirmed?

This is a brief update on our last overview of economic data. Although we briefly discussed employment as well, the overview was as usual mainly focused on manufacturing, which is the largest sector of the economy by gross output.

News from TINA Land

Distortions and Crazy Ideas

We have come across a few articles recently that discuss some of the strategies investors are using or contemplating to use as a result of the market distortions caused by current central bank policies. Readers have no doubt noticed that numerous inter-market correlations seem to have been suspended lately, and that many things are happening that superficially seem to make little sense (e.g. falling junk bond yields while defaults are surging; the yen rising since the BoJ adopted negative rates; stocks rising amid a persistent decline in earnings growth; bonds, gold and stocks moving in unison, etc., etc.).

Bank of England QE and the Imaginary "Brexit Shock"

Mark Carney, Wrecking Ball

For reasons we cannot even begin to fathom, Mark Carney is considered a "superstar" among central bankers. Presumably this was one of the reasons why the British government helped him to execute a well-timed exit from the Bank of Canada by hiring him to head the Bank of England (well-timed because he disappeared from Canada with its bubble economy seemingly still intact, leaving his successor to take the blame).

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