A New Yield Regime: Commodity-Led Rally in the Making

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Real VisionMarch 02, 2021
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes back Tony Greer of TG Macro where he declares that the five sigma sell-off in Treasuries last week marks the beginning of a new yield regime that will support a resources-led rally in earnest. Greer points to the dramatic move in rates being a response to visible commodity inflation, which is indicative of its strength. Because Greer sees a resources-led rally emerging, he explains why this is bad news for the tech sector over the next few months. After walking through the signals that are telling Greer that “this time is different,” he discusses how he’s positioning himself and what he’s eyeing in light of these changing market dynamics that continue to escalate.
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More Ultra Money Videos

Real VisionApril 15, 2021
The Bumpy Road to Reopening, Long-Term Supply Shortages, and Inflation
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes back Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, to discuss the newest release in the weekly jobless claims data, comparing the vaccine roll-out in the U.S. to other countries, and how we are on the precipice of inflation. Bianco points out how, even though jobless claims fell to the lowest level since the pandemic, the question of job growth is trickier to address as enhanced benefits seem to be deterring people from seeking out work. He also considers how the level of COVID-19 infections and the pace of vaccine roll-outs both differ between the U.S., Europe, and Asia, which means that globally, the reopening is much further away. Bianco and Harrison also address how supply chain disruptions may feed into inflationary pressures, how new methodology may have an impact on CPI metrics, earnings expectations for this year, and Bianco’s thoughts on the trajectory of the bond market and rates.
Real VisionApril 15, 2021
Scott Burg: Identifying Opportunities and Risks in Structured Credit
Scott Burg, CIO and managing partner at Deer Park Road, is among the most seasoned and disciplined investors in the structured credit space who joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison for a conversation to break down the complex financial market within fixed income investing. Following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), structured credit has carried a stigma among certain investors of being unduly risky. There have since been significant regulatory and other changes to the structured credit asset class that have helped improve investor protection and rendered the market more attractive. Filmed April 13, 2020. Key Learnings: In the age of Covid-19, Burg is bullish on structured products like residential real estate, aircrafts and franchises. Elsewhere though, there are problems, particularly in commercial real estate where Wall Street never skipped a beat in pumping out product post-GFC and where lending standards were loose, especially after 2012. The result is a plethora of opportunities on both the long and short side due to motivated pension fund and bank sellers. In the coming months and years, there is expected to be more opportunities, due to likely distress in hotels, office and retail.
Real VisionApril 14, 2021
Signs of Trouble in the Bank Earnings "Blowout"? Plus Coinbase's Debut
Real Vision’s Jack Farley welcomes Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, to make sense of the release of earnings from big banks such as JPMorgan Chase ($JPM), Goldman Sachs ($GS), and Wells Fargo ($WFC). Whalen explains why the eye-popping net income figures, which exceeded expectations, are largely due to booking released loan loss reserves as profits as well as trading revenues, which may not be sustainable. Whalen argues that quantitative easing has reduced banks’ earnings power by compressing their net income margins. Lastly, he and Farley discuss the ongoing role of the Federal Reserve as well as today’s direct listing of Coinbase.

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