The Charts of Truth

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Real VisionApril 17, 2020
Peter Brandt, Founder of Factor LLC, speaks to Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, about the dramatic price action he’s witnessing in equities, commodities, currencies, gold, and bitcoin. A veteran technical analyst, Brandt tells Pal about the charts on his radar and how they are informing his investing perspective. Raoul discusses how he interprets these chart patterns through the lens of dominant market narratives and shares how they are informing his macro framework. Filmed on April 15, 2020.
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Real VisionDecember 02, 2020
Bernd Ondruch and Mark Hiley: Tales from the Frontlines of Short Selling
Bernd Ondruch, founder & CIO of Astellon Capital Partners, welcomes Mark Hiley, veteran short-seller and founder of The Analyst, for a wide-ranging conversation about the subtle and challenging field of short selling. Ondruch and Hiley recount war stories from previous shorts such as Wirecard, Asian Bamboo, and NMC Health, sharing their techniques for spotting red flags ranging from dodgy accounting to non-existent factories. Hiley and Ondruch weigh in on the common challenges short sellers face, such as margin calls, defiant long-only investors, and guileful misrepresentations by management. Lastly, after reflection on the strictures placed on short sellers under the new regulatory regime of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II), Hiley and Ondruch impart some advice to investors who dare to dabble in this delicate art. Filmed on November 30, 2020. Key learnings: Identify the duration of your trade as some shorts require years to play out. Contrastingly, know when to get out. Be wary of crowded shorts as well as companies who appear to grow a great deal – it is often easier to short the value traps (unless, of course there is truly fraudulent accounting at play). Lastly, field work is incredibly important as that’s one of the last activities that computers can't do themselves.
Real VisionDecember 01, 2020
Keep Your Wits About You: Inflation Creeping In
Bleakley Advisor Group CIO Peter Boockvar joins senior editor Ash Bennington to discuss a potentially higher inflationary environment for 2021 and why that may put central banks and markets at odds. Boockvar reviews this year’s market trends and dissects the latest ISM manufacturing data, pointing out reports of supply chain disruptions, labor cost pressures, and a general rise in inflation. With markets looking past recent COVID-19 data with promising vaccine announcements, value is growing increasingly attractive here in the U.S., the U.K., Europe, and Asia. However, Boockvar explains his concerns of markets tightening with the onset of growth and whether the Fed will choose let the yield curve steepen or prevent it. As CPI increases are the kryptonite of central banks, should the inflation narrative take hold, Boockvar expresses how this may shock global bond markets. Real Vision's Haley Draznin explores the deep dichotomy between the real economy and equity markets, as all major U.S. indices were up today despite Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin shutting down the Fed's emergency loan programs for main street businesses.
Real VisionDecember 01, 2020
Teddy Vallee on the Dollar, Hard Assets, and the Real Rate Rotation
Teddy Vallee, founder and CIO of Pervalle Global, joins Real Vision's Jack Farley to share his strategic outlook for assets such as the U.S. dollar, technology and energy stocks, gold, and bitcoin. Vallee explains why he believes that real rates for U.S. Treasury bonds will increase, and he describes why this view makes him believe there could be a capital exodus from technology into energy equities, as well as making bitcoin and gold less attractive to hold for the short-term, although he remains bullish on these two assets over the long-term. Filmed on November 24, 2020. Key learnings: Real rates on U.S. Treasuries will likely rise. Long-term the U.S. dollar will encounter problems, but Vallee spots short-term tactical opportunity as Treasury issuance will create liquidity negative conditions over the next two-to-three months. Vallee is very positive on energy, Latin America, EM debt, as well as commodities relative to U.S. tech and bonds.

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