Gold, Germs, and Self-Preservation

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Real VisionMarch 26, 2020
Kiril Sokoloff, chairman and founder of 13D Global Strategy and Research, joins Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to discuss the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and its long-term consequences on monetary policy, investing, and geopolitics. Pal and Sokoloff analyze how a protracted quarantine might slow economic activity to such a degree that central banks become more active than they ever have before, either by monetizing debt or by purchasing risk assets outright. The pair also explore how the crisis might affect the 2020 election, the practice of stock buybacks, and specific assets like oil, gold, and the Japanese Yen. Released March 26, 2020.
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Real VisionJanuary 28, 2021
The Path Forward for Markets after Valuation Multiple Expansion
Amanda Agati, chief investment strategist of PNC Financial Services Group, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss everything that is driving markets in today's "new normal." She highlights the potential for the current bifurcated market environment continuing through at least the first half of 2021 until there is more progress around reopening and brightening around earnings and economic growth. Despite equity valuations staying at elevated levels, Agati believes they are not sitting in bubble territory because they are always a relative game versus the macroeconomic landscape and other asset classes. She notes there has been a significant sentiment shift driven by the outcome of the presidential election and by vaccine news and efficacy rates, and she's tracking Q4 2020 earnings reports and revisions for 2021 to create some semblance of proper equity valuations. Filmed on January 22, 2021. Key Learnings: We need to see the proverbial baton handed off from valuation multiple expansion driving asset prices and the overall market to earnings growth expansion to keep this market rally fueled. The macroeconomic backdrop of low rates for the foreseeable future has pushed yield-starved fixed income investors out the risk curve as longer-range return expectations continue to fall.
Real VisionJanuary 27, 2021
The Robinhood Revolt as an Expression of the Fourth Turning
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison sits down with Max Wiethe to discuss how Ed is making sense of the retail assault on short-sellers as an expression of the unfolding of The Fourth Turning. Harrison argues that intergenerational conflict has been brewing outside of the market; however, it now has found its way to Wall Street in the form of Robinhood traders looking to take out the old guard of finance and make a killing in the process. Real Vision’s Peter Cooper kicks it off by examining the various short squeezes occurring across U.S. and European equity markets.
Real VisionJanuary 27, 2021
Fracking, OPEC, and The Future of Energy
Kenneth Hersh, CEO of the George W. Bush Presidential Center and distinguished energy investor, joins David Salem, managing partner of Windhorse Capital Management, for a conversation on the history and the future of energy. Hersh shares with Salem his journey as the founder of energy investment firm Natural Gas Partners (NGP). Hersh catalogues five pivotal forces that have shaped energy markets: the rise of fracking, China's expanding presence in global trade and commodities markets, OPEC's evolving capacity to control global oil supplies and prices, nuclear power’s changing fortunes, and the growing influence of ESG mandates on capital flows and energy pricing. Hersh argues that natural gas has been the primary driver in the reduction of coal usage, which objectively is the most pollutant fossil fuel by a considerable margin. Hersh describes his efforts with the Global Adaptation Institute to mitigate the effects of climate change, as well as his ongoing stewardship of the George W. Bush Presidential Center. Salem closes with a "lightning round" where he asks Hersh about everything from Elon Musk's carbon capture award to Saudi Arabia’s investment in Softbank to baseball. Filmed on January 25, 2021. Key learnings: Hersh argues that fracking is key to decarbonization as it lessens the reliance on coal, which emits the most pollutants by far. He sheds light on the cartel dynamics of OPEC, which have been flipped on their head—U.S. production of oil has more than doubled, and the total supply of oil is (in effect) infinite. Also, the situation China finds itself in can further undermine OPEC's influence as China has an abundance of supply oil from their investments in oil fields around the globe.

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