Magellan Aerospace (MAL)

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Insights: From Fed patience to action

In this week's edition of Canadian Insider Insights, we make the bearish case for stocks this summer based on insider sentiment. Meanwhile, get the take on the markets from a former Trump insider in our broadcast of the week. Finally, we highlight recent CEO buying in the oil patch. You can read our weekly newsletter here without registration.

Weekly sound bite: As stocks get more expensive, some could win under a Trump presidency

Insider sentiment is cooling off sharply as the broad US market as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY*US) has risen about 10% over the past three months. Although the S&P 500 has not made new all-time highs in 2016, it is within striking distance of its all-time high of 2,134.70 set in May last year. While stocks could take-out that high-water mark shortly, insider sentiment is slipping in the three most economy-sensitive sectors: Energy, Basic Materials and Industrials. Therefore, it is not surprising that our overall US Market Indicator is also falling and is now below the 50% mark. At 50%, there are twice as many stocks with key insider sales as buys. With sentiment sliding, we have the US market on watch for a possible downgrade to overvalued based on insider sentiment.

Number Cruncher: Insiders see opportunities in these 15 TSX stocks

What are we looking for?

We are halfway to the next semi-annual rebalancing of the INK Canadian Insider Index, which will be implemented on Nov. 20. Today, we look for the stocks that are leading candidates for inclusion in the 50-stock index used by the Horizons Canadian Insider Index ETF (HII). A stock already in the index before rebalancing date stays so long as it is in the top 30 per cent of all stocks ranked on the basis of the INK Edge V.I.P. criteria (valuations, insider commitment, price momentum). We replace index drop-outs with the top ranked V.I.P. stocks which are not already index members. To identify where insiders see the best opportunities right now, we focus on the top 15 INK Edge ranked TSX stocks.

Who is clapping for Canada's central bank planned economy?

July 20, 2015 - If there was any doubt that the current government in Ottawa has thrown in the philosophical towel on free market oriented economics, it was removed last week when its central bank governor cut rates back down to great financial crisis levels. The lack of a crisis did not deter the central bank from pushing overnight rates into emergency status, a situation last seen during 2009 when the global economy was on the brink in wake of the Lehman bankruptcy.

On Wednesday, central bank governor Stephen Poloz even had to admit that the rate cut could negatively impact financial stability "vulnerabilities." This rolling of the dice has brought out the critics, which now even include some Bay Street money-bank economists. 

Number Cruncher: health care, industrials and tech: 10 top-ranked stocks

What are we looking for?

The 10 highest ranking stocks in some of Canada’s most innovation-dependent sectors: health care, industrials and technology (HITs). Rankings are determined by the INK Edge V.I.P. criteria (valuations, insider commitment and price momentum). This is the same approach we apply across the broad market to determine membership for the INK Canadian Insider Index, which is used by the Horizons Canadian Insider Index ETF (HII).

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