Weekly Sound Bite

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Sound Bite: Can the Vancouver Real Estate Gap lead to a Trump-like outcome in BC politics?

With west-side single family home prices soaring over 20% year-over-year, you would have to have your head in the policy sands to not understand that Vancouver real estate prices are on the cusp of a full-blown hyper inflation. Those that are in denial are riding on the assumption that what happens on the Vancouver west side stays on the west side. It does not.

Weekly Sound Bites: INK CIN Index rebalance - insiders see gold in Basic Materials

On Friday we announced the semi-annual rebalancing of the INK Canadian Insider (CIN) Index. The rules-based, mid-cap oriented index employs the INK Edge V.I.P. outlook ranking process to identify the 50 top-ranked value and price momentum stocks on the TSX preferred by insiders. On the second Friday of every May and November we announce the rebalancing results which are implemented the following Friday (May 20th this year). During the rebalancing process, all stocks in the Index that have a mixed INK Edge outlook or lower are removed and replaced by the highest ranked stocks not already in the Index. All surviving members of the Index are rebalanced to equal weight.

Weekly Sound Bites: American insiders not buying in May

It is not the time to buy this May, that's what American insiders say. American Insiders are rapidly losing interest in the market based on a drop in our US Indicator to 37% earlier in the week. That is below the 40% level where there are 2.5 stocks with key insider selling for every one with buying. In fact, the US Indicator has not been that low since a few weeks before the August sell-off last year. Given the slip in the indicator this month, on Wednesday we downgraded the American market to overvalued.

Weekly Sound Bite: Mining mania: sell in May?

When we started our weekly Roundhouse Radio commentary on January 14th, I suggested that with Federal Reserve Bank policy and related outcomes more uncertain, the case for investors to hold some gold stocks in their portfolios had strengthened. Since that broadcast, the iShares S&P/TSX Global Gold Index ETF (XGD) is up a whopping 64%, while the junior Venture Exchange Index is up 32% (as of Wednesday). In the weeks following the first commentary, I told listeners to keep an eye on the U.S. Dollar Index.

Weekly sound bite: As stocks get more expensive, some could win under a Trump presidency

Insider sentiment is cooling off sharply as the broad US market as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY*US) has risen about 10% over the past three months. Although the S&P 500 has not made new all-time highs in 2016, it is within striking distance of its all-time high of 2,134.70 set in May last year. While stocks could take-out that high-water mark shortly, insider sentiment is slipping in the three most economy-sensitive sectors: Energy, Basic Materials and Industrials. Therefore, it is not surprising that our overall US Market Indicator is also falling and is now below the 50% mark. At 50%, there are twice as many stocks with key insider sales as buys. With sentiment sliding, we have the US market on watch for a possible downgrade to overvalued based on insider sentiment.

Weekly sound bite: Doha's failure revealing that inflation is far from dead

On Sunday in Doha, major oil exporting countries failed to come to an agreement with respect to limiting production. Despite the collapse in talks, oil has bounced back from its initial sell-off early Monday. It appears that Doha's failure is actually giving our theme that growth may surprise on the upside a boost. With oil production still going full-steam ahead outside of the United States, there must be something at work to keep prices from collapsing.

Weekly Sound Bite: Stocks showing possible breakout and Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Report has a glaring omission

Toronto stocks appear to be at a decision point of having to pick between a breakout or breakdown. Both the mid-cap oriented INK Canadian Insider (CIN) and S&P/TSX Composite indices have been flirting with their 200-day moving averages for some time. As we start the trading day Thursday, it looks like stocks want to move higher with both indices trading above their long-term averages. In fact, the INK CIN Index has closed above its 200-day average for 3 days in a row.

Weekly Sound Bite: Looking for signs that the global economy may surprise on the upside

For the past year or so we have been getting used to bad news on the world economy with the IMF, OECD, and the Fed taking a downbeat view on world growth, particularly China. However, North American insiders have not been so negative recently.


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