US Market INK

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North American insiders signal that stocks face heavy resistance

 There appears to be a consensus among insiders that stocks are likely to face significant resistance at current levels. On Monday, we suggested that insiders were signalling that 1,160 would be a tough nut the crack for the INK Canadian Insider Index. We see the same dynamic playing out in US markets.

Stalling insider sentiment suggests stocks may have a hard time advancing

Like our Canadian-focused INK Indicator, our US Indicator is also levelling off. Such bottoming behaviour often takes place near significant resistance points. As a result, we expect 2,800 on the S&P 500 will be hard to crack in the short-term. If we are wrong, and stocks move higher in the days ahead, it would likely signal a return to a big-stock momentum-investing playbook. That said, we would not bet on that outcome.

Sound bites: Dippers Become Swingers

In my latest interview with Jim Goddard at Howestreet.com, I explain the key investing theme in our latest US Market INK report: the sea change facing investors after the election of Donald Trump. 

With Trump elected, will insider sentiment continue to move higher?

American insiders took advantage of falling share prices in the first week of November to increase their buying. Our INK US Indicator moved up to the 37% level, up from 30% last week. At 37% there are 37 stocks with key insider buying for every 100 with selling. Most encouraging was the uptick in sentiment among Industrials insiders. Our Industrials Indicator was back above 20% on Monday. Typically, when the indicator is below the 20% mark, the sector experiences weakness over the following 6 months.

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