S&P/TSX Composite Index

On Sunday in Doha, major oil exporting countries failed to come to an agreement with respect to limiting production. Despite the collapse in talks, oil has bounced back from its initial sell-off early Monday. It appears that Doha's failure is actually giving our theme that growth may surprise on the upside a boost. With oil production still going full-steam ahead outside of the United States, there must be something at work to keep prices from collapsing.

Toronto stocks appear to be at a decision point of having to pick between a breakout or breakdown. Both the mid-cap oriented INK Canadian Insider (CIN) and S&P/TSX Composite indices have been flirting with their 200-day moving averages for some time. As we start the trading day Thursday, it looks like stocks want to move higher with both indices trading above their long-term averages. In fact, the INK CIN Index has closed above its 200-day average for 3 days in a row.

For the past year or so we have been getting used to bad news on the world economy with the IMF, OECD, and the Fed taking a downbeat view on world growth, particularly China. However, North American insiders have not been so negative recently.

Monday November 16th marked the first full live year of the INK Canadian Insider (CIN) Index. The period was dominated by a collapse in crude oil prices and the stunning fall from grace of Canada's drug giant Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (INK Edge outlook: rainy; VRX). In this down market environment, the INK CIN Index beat the S&P/TSX Composite Index by 7.76% on a total return basis.