SPDR KBW Bank ETF (KBE*US)

As we make our way through the second half of the year, insiders remain cautiously bullish on the Canadian market. This can be seen by looking at trends with our INK Canadian Insider (CIN) Index rebalancing process.

There are more warning signs for a US market that spent has spent the summer hitting new all-time highs. Over the past few weeks we have been watching broad insider sentiment sink as stocks have moved higher. Banking insiders were the one group that offered some comfort to the bulls with our Banking Indicator remaining above the 100% mark, meaning there were more stocks in the group with key insider buying than there were with selling. However, in advance of Janet Yellen's Friday speech at the Kansas City Federal Reserve's end-of-summer symposium at Jackson Hole, the banking insider comfort zone is crumbling.

Highlights from the June 1st US Market INK Report

Our US Banks Indicator remains positive, sitting above the 100% level (at which point there are the same number of stocks with key insider buying as there are with selling). Nevertheless, after a nice rally over the past few weeks, the bottoming of our US Banks Indicator suggests that much of the rally in the group may be over for now. A bottom in an indicator often coincides with a top in associated share prices. The counter argument could be made on traditional technical measures. From a technical chart perspective, new highs in the banks do look possible, particularly with the SPDR KBW Bank ETF (KBE*US) trading above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. It also put in a new 3-month high earlier this week.

As we expected, we have seen a modest bounce in the Utilities SPDR ETF (XLU*US) which has advanced about 0.7% since our report last week. Concerns about Greece and slowing industrial production helped the long-bond sensitive group to move off its recent lows. As has often been the case throughout the economic recovery, the data has provided investors with a mixed picture. Industrial production numbers disappointed on Monday, but retail sales generally came in better than expected last Thursday. 

The persistence of some data that surprises on the downside will likely encourage the Federal Reserve to take a go-slow approach on interest rate increases.