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Trying to build a base for the broad market and pot stocks

Although one week does not make a trend, given recent market carnage, the bulls can be forgiven if they point to some positive developments in the Canadian market last week. Nicholas Winton who writes a weekly technical outlook for the INK Canadian Insider Index noted in his Monday write up that the index (-0.8%) outperformed US markets last week, including the S&P 500 (-4.6%). We would add that the Index also outperformed the large-cap S&P/TSX 60 Index (-2.8%). Both developments are notable. In 2008, stocks outside the United States started to stabilize first. Meanwhile, as we explained in our November 19th report (Are we close to turning the corner?), we will have more confidence that the global selling tide is over once the INK CIN Index starts to outperform large-caps which are seen as a relative area of safety during growth scares.

Still no insider confirmation of a bottom

Our INK US Indicator moved up slightly last week to 64% Wednesday, at which point there are 6.4 stocks with key insider buying for every 10 with selling. Given that the indicator is still on the rise, we have yet to see peak insider buying that typically occurs near market bottoms. Just as we see a lack of confirmation from our indicator that a durable floor has been established for stocks, we also fail to see confirmation from financial stocks.

 

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