INK Consumer Cyclical Indicator

July 27, 2015 - The Canadian consumer put in a strong showing in May as retail sales jumped 1% over the previous month. That strength could be in jeopardy, however, as policies targeting a lower loonie may put a dent in the prosperity of most Canadians. In particular, if BMO Chief Economist Doug Porter and his colleagues are right, a weakening loonie could soon clobber the real spending growth of Canadians. According to their July 24 report, as the loonie rose from 2002 to 2008, real consumer spending growth in Canada averaged an annualized growth rate of 3.8% which compared favourably to the weak loonie period from 1992-2002 when real consumer spending rose only 2.4% per year. The bottom line, according to the BMO team, is that a weak loonie for the Canadian consumer "is bad news, period."