Bank of Canada

The public should soon catch on to central banking failures suggests Bob Hoye from ChartsandMarkets.com. In another fascinating interview with Jim Goddard, Hoye calls out central bankers for implementing policies based on theories that do not work. In the meantime, stocks look like they are in the early stages of a bear market, but a bounce is due.

Click to listen to Bob Hoye's December 21st broadcast

In our most recent market update to clients and my regular interview with Kirk Lapointe on Monday, I explained that the Bank of Canada needs to start talking about normalizing interest rates, because the economy is now growing and the rationale for having ultra low rates is evaporating. Indeed, we saw insiders anticipate the recovery in Western Canada during last fall's rebalancing of the INK Canadian Insider Index when the index make-up tilted towards Energy and Canadian retail names.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz admits in testimony before the Senate Committee on Banking, Trade, and Commerce that it is the Bank of Canada's low rates, and not China, that is primarily responsible for inflated housing prices. In refreshing and remarkably direct questioning on October 19, 2016, Committee Chairman David Tkachuk asks, "aren't we at fault for the ease of people getting into a house, and it's driving the prices up?" The central bank chief's answer surprised me. He says it is indeed true.

July 27, 2016 - Yesterday the Federal Reserve released a non-controversial policy statement essentially saying that risks were not as high as last meeting (which took place right before Brexit) and that the labour market was showing some signs of strength. Essentially, it left itself enough wiggle room for the rest of the year to either raise rates, do nothing, or backtrack should the data turn south.

Toronto stocks appear to be at a decision point of having to pick between a breakout or breakdown. Both the mid-cap oriented INK Canadian Insider (CIN) and S&P/TSX Composite indices have been flirting with their 200-day moving averages for some time. As we start the trading day Thursday, it looks like stocks want to move higher with both indices trading above their long-term averages. In fact, the INK CIN Index has closed above its 200-day average for 3 days in a row.

As we put together our weekly Monday market comments for INK subscribers, we are focusing on the Financials which have been ripping higher over the past month. The S&P/TSX Financials Index is up 6.5% over the past 30 days. It is often said that a sustainable market rally is not possible without the participation of the Financials, so seeing the group leading the overall market is an encourage sign. The positive price action is supported by our INK Financials Indicator which is signalling that the stocks in the sector put in a significant low in August.

Age has never stopped me from trying something new. I quit my relatively secure job with one of Canada's largest pension fund managers in my 40s to start up INK Research, an internet based independent research firm. The odds were against my business partner and me, but we did it. After more than 10 years of ups and downs associated with that decision, I am still not afraid to do something new when a business case is strong. Next Monday, I will be doing just that. For the first time in my life I will be voting for the Liberal Party of Canada.

One of the most important decisions a government makes is the appointment of the CEO in charge of the cost of living, the governor of the Bank of Canada. The Harper conservatives abandoned the principles of sound monetary policy in the home stretch of the last mandate with the appointment of Stephen Poloz to that role on May 2, 2013. It was a decision that likely helped tip Canada into recession. Worryingly, the Bank of Canada and Harper conservative policy mix has also resulted in shifting the relative debt burden away from the Federal government's official balance sheet and dramatically onto Canadian families and CMHC.

Bank of Canada rate cuts may well have been the most popular item at global convenience store operator Alimentation Couche-Tard (INK Edge outlook: sunny; ATD.B) Wednesday, if not with their customers certainly with shareholders. The stock was the best performing name (+4.2%) in the INK Canadian Insider (CIN) Index as insider stocks rallied on the back of a quarter point drop in the central bank's overnight rate. However, the Poloz cut did not lift all boats. While both the INK CIN Index (+0.14%) and the S&P/TSX Composite Index (+0.43%) rallied on the rate news, both the S&P/TSX Completion (-0.37%) and Small Cap (-0.44%) indices dropped. Perhaps most surprising was a drop in the Dividend Aristocrats Index which suffered a -0.47% loss.