Insights: Will the bulls keep up the energy to win the week?

Ad blocking detected

Thank you for visiting We have detected you cannot see ads being served on our site due to blocking. Unfortunately, due to the high cost of data, we cannot serve the requested page without the accompanied ads.

If you have installed ad-blocking software, please disable it (sometimes a complete uninstall is necessary). Private browsing Firefox users should be able to disable tracking protection while visiting our website. Visit Mozilla support for more information. If you do not believe you have any ad-blocking software on your browser, you may want to try another browser, computer or internet service provider. Alternatively, you may consider the following if you want an ad-free experience.

Canadian Insider Club
$299/ year*
Daily Morning INK newsletter
+3 months archive
Canadian Market INK weekly newsletter
+3 months archive
30 publication downloads per month from the PDF store
Top 20 Gold, Top 30 Energy, Top 40 Stock downloads from the PDF store
All benefits of basic registration
No 3rd party display ads

* Price is subject to applicable taxes.

Paid subscriptions and memberships are auto-renewing unless cancelled (easily done via the Account Settings Membership Status page after logging in). Once cancelled, a subscription or membership will terminate at the end of the current term.

April 8th, 2019

Last week was a good one for the bulls with the mid-cap-oriented INK Canadian Insider Index rising 2.1%, outperforming the large-cap S&P/TSX 60 Index which advanced 1.8% as of Friday. We view INK CIN outperformance over the S&P/TSX 60 as a positive sign as it means investors are preferring smaller stocks that are more tilted towards global growth compared to the perceived relative safety of large-cap stocks. However, the INK CIN is still underperforming on a 1-month basis so we believe it is premature to believe that we can move onto new highs without first having another correction.

Moreover, our 60-day INK Indicator which tracks insider sentiment towards TSX stocks has still not resumed a bullish pattern which would take place once it starts to clearly head back down towards 60% to 80%. The indicator's sweet spot for the bullish case is between 100% and 60% on the way down as it would signal that upward price momentum is returning to Canadian stocks, prompting insiders to take some profits. However, our short-term version of the indicator based on 30 days of data is moving lower. As such, we believe there is a better than 50/50 chance that our 60-day Indicator will soon follow.

This week will be an important one for the bullish case. If the INK CIN Index can maintain its momentum in conjunction with our INK Indicator moving lower, we would have a nice bullish setup for the final few weeks of April. Oil & gas stocks may well be key over the next few days. Canadian Energy stocks have been reluctant to break out higher, preferring to remain in a consolidation pattern over the last two months. That may be set to change. As it turns out, two of the best performing INK CIN Index stocks last week were oil & gas names.

Canadian Energy stocks trying to move higher (click for larger)

With a strong seasonal period in crude oil now upon us, we need to see oil & gas stocks move higher as that would signal recent crude oil price strength has some legs, likely tied to stronger global growth. On the flip side, failure for oil patch names to move higher would be a warning sign that the recent move up in oil prices is likely little more than a seasonal flash in the pan.

On balance, the bulls are well positioned to take control, but they will need lots of energy to help them win the upcoming week. So far so good with the S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index jumping 1.5% and the INK CIN Index advancing 0.6% on Monday.

Top 3 Gainers Last Week

Company NameStock Symbol1 Week %
Calfrac Well ServicesCFW14.0
Yangarra ResourcesYGR11.6
AGF ManagementAGF.B10.0

Top 3 Losers Last Week

Company NameStock Symbol1 Week %
Dundee Precious MetalsDPM-3.8
Brookfield Business PartnersBBU.UN-2.1
Teranga GoldTGZ-2.1

Returns are as of the last trading day of the previous week.

Featured Broadcast

Insider of the Week

Shopify CEO Tobias Lütke*

Shopify (SHOP) stock took a hit late last week following a short-sellers report. However, according to INK short signals, the stock has a potential short-squeeze setup as short-sellers are betting against a stock with relatively high insider commitment. In fact, the stock currently has a sunny INK Edge outlook, placing it in the top 10% of all stocks ranked. That top-notch ranking is thanks to both strong price momentum and insider commitment. One reason the stock ranks so high on insider commitment is due to the large amount of stock that CEO Tobias Lütke still holds. While he has sold some shares recently, the amounts are not enough to move the needle on our screens. Instead, his large holdings dominate. He owns 7,858,504 multiple voting class B shares, 150,104 subordinate voting class A shares.

Of course, INK short signals are not guaranteed to produce profitable trading outcomes. With that said, we believe short-selling strategies are generally best targeted to stocks that do not have strong insider commitment rankings. More often than not, we expect the insiders to come out on top of a short-selling challenge.

INK Edge outlook ranking categories (Sunny, Mostly Sunny, Mixed, Cloudy, Rainy) are designed to identify groups of stocks that have the potential to out- or under-perform the market. However, any individual stock could surprise on the up or downside. As such, outlook categories are not meant to be stock-specific recommendations. For background on our INK Edge outlook, please visit our FAQ #5 at

*Image credit: By Union Eleven - Union Eleven, CC BY-SA 3.0

INK Canadian Insider Index

1 Year Total Return Performance

Historical Performance

Annualized Total Return as of April 8, 2019 04:49 pm
1 Year -6.03%
3 Years 7.18%
5 Years 3.60%
10 Years 13.30%

To learn more about the Index please visit

5 Year Total Return Performance

To start receiving a PDF version of this newsletter by email select it in your alert settings. If you do not have an account, join us here.

Comment On!

Upload limit is up to 1mb only
To post messages to your Socail Media account, you must first give authorization from the websites. Select the platform you wish to connect your account to (via Easy Blurb).