Insights: Dot plots will not crush the oil price

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June 20th, 2021

The dollar bulls and inflation bears came out of hiding last week. And, why not? The Federal Reserve blinked on its "inflation is transitory" narrative and signalled it was ready to hammer the economy with rate hikes to keep inflation in check. We will see how long their bravado lasts. However, if more Fed players like Jim Bullard keep pounding their chests about moving up rate hikes, the US dollar could bounce higher to the beat. Such a scenario would be bad for commodities and value stocks.

A flattening yield curve is not good for value stocks

Raoul Pal laid out the risks facing investors should the greenback continue its trek higher in an engaging appearance on Friday's Real Vision Daily Briefing. While he believes the dollar is on the verge of a sustained move higher, it is not a sure bet. He gives us his take on what assets he likes in this environment, focusing on his Exponential Age theme.

Deflation vs. Inflation: No clear winner as the Gold/Silver Ratio remains in a range

As we explained on HoweStreet.com radio on Thursday, we do not believe the Fed can stop commodity inflation by all talk and no action. In our view, dot plots on a chart are not the same as rate hikes. As such, we expect commodities will continue to inflate, albeit not in a straight line. Eventually, we expect the oil price will force the Fed's hand. Between now and then, we are preparing for plenty of volatility.

Making money will not get any easier in the weeks ahead. As usual, we are letting the insiders guide us to opportunity. We are seeing insiders respond to the post-Fed meeting sell-off. On Monday, we will be featuring a lumber stock that has sold off but remains high on our screens. Meanwhile, expensive technology stocks are starting to improve in our rankings as they regain momentum.

If the dollar breaks out to new highs, Technology, Utilities, and gold producers may be fighting it out for supremacy. However, with the Gold/Silver Ratio stuck in its range, the inflation versus deflation struggle continues with no clear indication of whether the G or D economy will prevail for the rest of the year. If you are not familiar with our G versus D framework, click here for a summary on INK Ultra Money.


Top 3 Gainers Last Week

Company NameStock Symbol1 Week Return %
Airboss of AmericaBOS4.9
CascadesCAS3.9
AutoCanadaACQ3.3

Top 3 Losers Last Week

Company NameStock Symbol1 Week Return %
Copper Mountain MiningCMMC-17.5
China Gold Int'lCGG-14.5
Frontera EnergyFEC-13.6

Returns are as of the last trading day of the previous week.

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Insider of the Week

Richard Kellam, CEO of DATA Communications Management (DCM)

Richard Kellam is off to a good start in his new job. He took over the reins of the company on March 8th, and the stock has been soaring. The new CEO is betting that the company's digital DCM Flex brand management and workflow solution will help it grow its business with large customers. Read our June 18th morning report for our latest update on the stock.

INK Canadian Insider Index

1 Year Total Return Performance


Historical Performance

Annualized Total Return as of June 18, 2021 04:49 pm
1 Year 68.55%
3 Years 8.34%
5 Years 10.53%
10 Years 9.34%


To learn more about the Index please visit
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5 Year Total Return Performance


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