Ted Dixon's blog

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Insights: Riding volatility with guilty pleasures

Election outcomes, a bouncing Financial stock, warrant overhangs, a contrarian opportunity, China crisis and pot stocks are all covered in this week's Canadian Insider Insights. We are also feeling a little guilty about this week's Ultra Money video of the week.

The Recession-Proof Portfolio: Investing in Vice

Insights: As we wait for the really big opportunity, cannabis is back

We are altering the format of our Insights newsletter a bit to make it more useful for our members by focusing on the key emerging themes and findings that we have covered over the past week. INK Research produces about 10 or more written reports and blog posts a week, plus INK Chat entries. In addition, we publish 3 videos a day on INK Ultra Money during the week. We cover a lot of ground, and, in this report, we will try to make sure you do not miss the essence of the key material that can help you navigate unfolding risks and identify emerging opportunities.

I hope you will find the new format a useful resource. Click here to read the key themes that have been hitting our radar screen recently.

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The risk of a nominal growth surprise

October is a month that can be full of surprises. So far, 2020 has been full of bad surprises. But, what if we start to get some mean reversion back to positive surprises?

Today on INK Ultra Money, David Rosenberg gives us his take on the outlook for markets via a Real Vision interview with Ed Harrison. As usual, his base case is for subdued growth leading to disinflation or deflation. However, he seems to be shortening his time horizon for these downward forces to play out and makes the surprising admission that we could get a surprise jump in nominal GDP growth in light of all the government stimulus spending, much of which remains saved and could be spent if consumer confidence increases.

Lots of consumer spending dry powder left

I believe this thinking fits nicely with our core investment theme #1 which we updated today in our market report. In case you missed it, I will post the theme below, but in a nutshell it favours stocks such as those in the INK Canadian Insider Index that are geared towards rising inflation expectations.

Insights: On the watch for political change in Washington

Besides batteries, electric vehicles and lithium stocks have at least one other thing in common. Read our take on what the upcoming election could mean for them in this week's Insights.

Waving goodbye to our basic Canadian Insider service

After 15 years, we are discontinuing our free basic registered account service. While many pre-login features of the website will still be available to the public, over the next two weeks, we will be closing all basic Canadian Insider accounts. If you would like to keep access to your account (including blog alerts), please join us now as a Canadian Insider Club or Canadian Insider Club Ultra member.

For basic members who no longer want access to their accounts, no further action is required.

Insights: Will Energy now lead the way for the bulls?

In our latest Insights, we look at the battle between the bulls and bears that is shaping up on INK Ultra Money. On balance, the bulls seem to be tipping towards the Energy sector as a possible path to higher returns. Meanwhile, the financial system is at risk of being disrupted by cryptocurrency. Finally, our insider of the week helps to ensure that junior gold mining stays in the opportunity spotlight. Click here to read.

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Howe Street Interview: Gold, New Blockchain Financial System

In my Wednesday interview with Jim Goddard, I continue to make the case for caution on precious metals stocks as we head into the US presidential debates. I reference recent insider selling and the big move of the gold/silver ratio as indicators of concern. In the second segment, I discuss innovation and improvisation as an investment theme as we work our way through the pandemic.

In the final section, I talk about decentralized finance and why risk-tolerant investors should look at the investment opportunity found in cryptocurrencies and blockchain.

Insights: Will 2021 be more fun?

In the latest Canadian Insider Insights, we examine if the US Financials sector might bring happier times for investors in the New Year. We also look at what insiders are suggesting about Canadian REITs. Meanwhile, in the mining area we compare industrials versus precious metals insider sentiment. Of course, we also have our broadcast and insider of the week features which you can check out here.

Playing Ball with the Fed

While stocks may be taking a breather today, Juliette Declercq, founder of JDI Research, has a generally upbeat outlook over the next few years. Her optimism is grounded in the notion that most global policy makers are quite happy with the Fed's game plan. There is one big risk she sees, however, and that may well be what is holding back stocks today. I really enjoyed this interview, and it is the best one that I have listened to from Real Vision this week.

Letting the Fed win the race to the FX bottom

Wednesday's free Real Vision Daily Briefing with Roger Hirst comes in at a close second for my pick of the week so far. The discussion centres primarily on the options market. Given that Friday is stock options expiration day, it is a timely and engaging discussion.

Insights: What a Biden presidency could mean for stocks

In the latest issue of Insights, we assess what a Biden presidency could mean for North American stocks. It is a topic I explore in depth with Jim Goddard in my latest Howe Street interview. The newsletter also highlights an interview with Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal who remains concerned about the outlook for markets. Click here to read.

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