Ted Dixon's blog

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INK Ultra Money: The Financial Analyst surplus and TINA

On Wednesday, we published our bearish case for American stocks based on insider signals. Today, we have come across a strong bullish response from Tyler Neville who explains that some institutions really do not have any alternative but to buy right now. He makes three controversial points starting with the assumption that, like it or not, flows are driving the stock market rally.

The second half road to nowhere

(Originally published on July 8, 2020)  - Today we are going to focus strictly on interpreting what our US insider sentiment indicators are now signalling. Our key US Indicator which measures sentiment towards the average stock in America has firmly established a bottoming pattern. That means insider buying has bottomed out, typically a short-term bearish signal as such a pattern often happens near market tops. Moreover, we have seen above-average insider profit-taking in dollar terms. This has taken place right before many firms enter insider trading blackout periods. In plain English, that means insiders are taking money off the table while the going is good.

The major risk to our bearish signal is the possibility that insiders are early. Last week, we suggested that the June 8th S&P 500 high of 3,233.13 is going to be a tough nut to crack. We still believe that to be the case. However, we cannot rule out one last gasp higher before a correction. From current levels, we expect, at best, average real returns from US stocks over the next year.

INK Ultra Money: China, a bearish call and INK Chat scores big again

Today, Real Vision turns its attention to China. Ed Harrison interviews George Magnus, research associate for the China Centre at Oxford University, who assesses the situation in China and what it means for investors. Watch the premium video here.


INK is keeping tabs on mining COVID-19 risks

 

Meanwhile, INK is going full blown contrarian on COVID-19 as chatter builds in the markets that the disease no longer matters. As a case in point, this morning I read a piece from a large fully-licensed-in-China financial services firm touting herd immunity and advising investors to position for growth.

INK Edge July Top 40: The G-economy races ahead

Deflation-oriented D-economy stocks are left behind in this month's Top 40 Stock Report. At the stock level, insiders are betting on an inflationary environment ahead. Like last month, mining stocks dominate the list. Read the report to see which stocks have raced up our rankings. The report is available free for Canadian Insider Club members. Non-member can purchase the report  in the Canadian Insider store.

 

 


G-economy stocks fueled by inflation expectations
 

On INK Ultra Money INK Research sticks with its COVID-19 matters in mining theme, looking at the top ranked stock in this month's Top 40 report which is operating in Nevada. Fortunately for the mining industry, much of Nevada has avoided the fate of its next-door neighbour Arizona. Club members can watch the premium video summary of today's morning report here.

INK Ultra Money: Here comes the flood

If Dr. Z. Barton Wang of Barton Research is right, here comes a big flood of cash into the markets. While we have seen lots of stimulus money hit financial markets over the past few months, we could see the gush of liquidity become even more forceful as the Treasury picks up spending from its Treasury General Account this week. This is a riveting Real Vision premium interview that provides some eye-opening insight to what is going on.

 

Treasury lets loose (click to watch the interview)

Dr. Wang also gives us his take on COVID-19 which he believes will lead to a very slow recovery, but housing and building materials should lead. The interview is a nice complement to our Monday market update for Canadian Insider Club members Nova Scotia to the rescue as global COVID-19 cases and stocks surge?

INK Ultra Money: The Fed will not be able to stop inflation

Heading into the weekend we have a fantastic Real Vision episode with dollar bear Ben Melkman who is interviewed by dollar bull Raoul Pal. It makes for a great conversation where Ben does a good job challenging Raoul's dollar shortage thesis. Nevertheless, they find some common ground when it comes to gold which Ben describes as a high-quality bet. Ben also explains how the Fed is backing itself into a corner on the inflation front.

Insights: Where a V-shaped recovery is taking place in Canada

The latest Insights focuses on the junior mining V-shaped recovery. Our broadcast of the week looks at how investors can use insider data to avoid overhyped stocks with poor quality assets. Meanwhile, our insider of the week is from the oil patch and he as been buying the recent pause in Energy sector stocks.

Happy Canada Day junior mining!

In this week's INK Market Report, we dug into the bull market taking place in Canadian junior mining stocks. Canada's venture market is in the throes of a V-shaped recovery with the S&P/TSX Venture Index ending the first six months of 2020 up an impressive 7.4%. To celebrate, below we have a special Canada Day offer to help you capitalize on the junior mining boom of 2020.

Canada's Venture Index is up 7.4% year-to-date (click for larger)

First, let me put the opportunity in context. With the junior market being so strong, I explained in my interview this week with Jim Goddard on HoweStreet.com that risk-oriented investors placing money into a junior play need to dodge overhyped stocks with poor quality assets. Insider data can be part of your tool kit to avoid junior miners that could ultimately be left behind due to endless financing needs.

INK Ultra Money Free: Will energy stocks heat up this summer?

Canadian oil & gas stocks have been consolidating over the past month while other economically-sensitive stocks in the mining area have been soaring. If the global economy continues to recover over the summer, investors could warm up to the Energy sector again. Today on INK Ultra Money, we look at a Canadian junior producer where insiders have been buying the dip over the past month.

Some INK picks have already doubled in the Venture V-shaped recovery

Today in the INK Market Report, we highlighted the bull market in Canadian junior mining stocks. While the North American economy may be challenged to put in a V-shaped recovery, Canada's Venture market appears to be succeeding with that letter of the alphabet. The S&P/TSX Venture Index jumped 5.6% last week and the Index is now up year-to-date. Money is clearly moving into the sector, pushing up valuations.

Canada's Venture Index is up almost 4% year-to-date (click for larger)

 

With the junior market being so strong, financings are finally getting done in the junior space. While most of the newly-raised money heads into the ground for exploration, some of it inevitably will find its way into stock promotion campaigns. It is always a good idea to read the fine print of any free newsletter touting a stock to see if the newsletter writer is being paid for coverage.

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