Blogs

Brendan Bell, the acting CEO of Dominion Diamond (DDC), took an unconventional route to the C-suite. Neither a geologist nor an investment banker, Bell was a cabinet minister in the Northwest Territories before joining the northern diamond producer in July 2013. As the company's stock has plummeted recently, Bell has been buying. He purchased 5,000 shares at $18.14 on June 25, following that up with another 5,000-share buy four days later at $17.65.

July 13, 2015 - As of early Monday morning, there were only a few details available of a deal reached between Greece and its creditors for another bailout. Early indications suggest the agreement will on balance support growth. It may also increase the chances that the Federal Reserve will be able to raise rates later this year.  

Meanwhile, in China it may be too early to tell whether the summer collapse in the stock market signals either a growth or political set back for the world's second largest economy. In particular, China-related margin calls may well have been primarily responsible for the plunge in metals markets last week. It will take some time to see whether there was more to the metals wipe-out than simply the margin clerks at work.

The margin of error for policymakers around the globe has not been this narrow since September 15, 2008, the first trading day after the Lehman collapse. However, there is one big difference: the stakes have never been personally higher for individual policymakers.

In particular, German Chancellor Angela Merkel must balance the demands of her conservative political base against the possibility that over-pandering to her supporters could lead to an unwinding of the euro via a Greece exit. In contrast, for Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras a post-euro Greece would no doubt stumble badly; its pain would not be made up for by the fact that Germany would be on the hook for billions of euros in debt.

Insiders were quite active on the TSX yesterday. As the broad market fell about 2% on fears over Greece, insider buying surged based on TSX insider summary marker data. There were 94 stocks with buys versus only 19 with sells.

June 29, 2015 - Last week we suggested that investors could expect hotter markets this summer with the caveat that it would not come without some sweating. While the first week of summer did see stocks heat up with the INK Canadian Insider Index advancing 1.9%, the sweating starts this week with a bank holiday in Greece on the back of collapsed bailout talks.

As we kick off summer trading, insiders are suggesting it could be a hot one. While spring went out like a lamb with the INK Canadian Insider (CIN) Index falling 1.3% last week, it held a key support level at 1,071. For the year, the INK CIN Index remains up 3.8%, ahead of the S&P/TSX Composite which is essentially flat (+0.1%).

Looking ahead, the changing of the guard message we heard from insiders during the INK CIN Index's semi-annual rebalancing remains in place. Defensive strategies have been replaced by tilting towards stocks that would benefit most from a general rise in the price level and higher long-term rates.

What are we looking for?
 
Looking at all the stocks on the TSX, we want to screen for the highest-ranking telecom and utilities names, two popular sectors for dividend-hungry investors. Rankings are determined by the INK Edge V.I.P. criteria (valuations, insider commitment and price momentum). This is the same approach we apply across the broad market to determine membership for the INK Canadian insider index, which is used by the Horizons Canadian Insider Index ETF (HII).

As we expected, we have seen a modest bounce in the Utilities SPDR ETF (XLU*US) which has advanced about 0.7% since our report last week. Concerns about Greece and slowing industrial production helped the long-bond sensitive group to move off its recent lows. As has often been the case throughout the economic recovery, the data has provided investors with a mixed picture. Industrial production numbers disappointed on Monday, but retail sales generally came in better than expected last Thursday. 

The persistence of some data that surprises on the downside will likely encourage the Federal Reserve to take a go-slow approach on interest rate increases.

Every week we provide an American insider overview for our subscribers at INKResearch.com and TD Direct investing. Below I have incorporated the commentary from this morning's INK Research American insider article which appeared before the open. Today's commentary is particularly relevant for investors in the Canadian market as insiders south of the border appear to be confirming the tilt towards growth-oriented stocks we are seeing in Canada.