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In looking at start the start of October, we entered a period which began under a great deal of negative sentiment thanks to the volatility of the last few months and the financial media which always seem ready to trot out annual comparisons to October 1987 or various analogs to the 1929 stock market crash. We see this as a very bullish backdrop from a contrarian point of view. In fact, we are already seeing increasingly bullish signs across North American financial markets. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials have thumbed their noses at the mainstream media as they have risen 5% in the last week alone, one of the best starts to October ever!

Technical Overview by Nicholas Winton, Hedgehog Trader  and @HedgehogTrader on Twitter

Thank you for joining us for our weekly technical look at the INK Canadian Insider Index. In our last update, we observed the Index was locked in a very tight range between 980 and 1020 and that converging trend-lines would soon force it to make a move.

Boxed in. That is the key theme we are working on for Monday's INK market report. In his weekly technical commentary, a separate report which we will publish here also on Monday morning, Nicholas Winton characterizes the INK Canadian Insider Index as being in a consolidation box. That seems to be a pretty good characterization of the current state of affairs for not only the Index but also policy makers and markets in general.

Today, we're going to take a technical look at mining stocks which are an important element in the commodities market since their direction and movement tend to lead the price of gold.

What are we looking for?

Looking at all the stocks on the TSX, we want to screen for the highest Energy sector stocks. Rankings are determined by the INK Edge V.I.P. criteria (valuations, insider commitment and price momentum). This is the same approach we apply across the broad-market to determine membership for the INK Canadian Insider Index, which is used by the Horizons Canadian Insider Index ETF (HII).

Technical Overview by Nicholas Winton, Hedgehog Trader and @HedgehogTrader on Twitter

Thank you for joining us in our weekly technical look at the mid-cap oriented INK Canadian Insider (CIN) Index. Since our last update the INK CIN Index has maintained its resolve and has refused to break down. In fact, having bounced off the 985 level, the Index is making incrementally higher lows and continues to consolidate ahead of a final resolution (shown by the two converging black lines). What's more, even though its Relative Strength Indicator has not climbed above the 50 level (which I think is needed for a breakout), its RSI is also quietly and bullishly, making higher lows. Meanwhile, it's the same story for the Index's MACD signal which bottomed in late August and has climbed steadily ever since.

The key theme for Monday's market update is the reaction of insiders to policy signals from central banks over the past few days. Yesterday, not only did Janet Yellen backtrack from her dovish stance of the previous week, but Mario Draghi also surprised some investors by failing to signal more euro QE was on the way. Then, topping things off, last night Bank of Japan head Haruhiko Kuroda suggested that price pressures were temporary. That left traders to speculate additional monetary stimulus was unlikely anytime soon, particularly given rumours that the government did not want to see the yen weaken much further. 

Stephen Poloz, the Harper-appointed chief of our central bank, was in Calgary Monday to talk about resources and "policy lessons." I am not going to quote from the speech as I prefer to focus on what was missing from his remarks. The contents of the speech were the usual mix of Bank of Canada rhetoric such as "the Bank has built up credibility" and confidence in the institution's ability to assess the workings of the economy.

Almost immediately after starting the job as Bank of Canada Governor, Mr. Poloz began talking down the currency in an attempt to remake the industrial landscape, but if he has learned any lessons about his policy's role in what ensued, his speech failed to acknowledge it. Specifically, the refusal of the central bank governor to acknowledge the role his institution played in exacerbating the downturn in the oil patch via the premature loosening of monetary conditions was a telling omission.