INK Ultra Money Free: Green sends a red signal

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When Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors posted his thoughts on the direction of stocks March 26th, he suggested there was almost an inevitability of higher equity prices. In making his dispassionate and prescient bullish call he said:

Then the unavoidable conclusion is that markets could aggressively reprice higher as money flows into passive strategies; this becomes particularly true if the United States is engaged in a pattern of aggressive stimulus.

More than three months latter, the Nasdaq 100 Index has made a new all-time high and the S&P 500 is up for the year. Mike Green nailed it. But now, he is worried. In particular, he is worried about creeping middle class unemployment that will adversely affect those passive flows. He reveals a worried outlook in the Friday Real Vision Daily Briefing which I urge everyone to watch.

When the virtuous passive cycle turns

In the INK Chat investing strategy channel, I discuss how I am responding to this new information from Mike Green and why I believe our July 23rd morning report provides some insight into what could happen in the weeks ahead.

Canadian Insider Club and Ultra members are eligible for an INK Chat invite. If you are not a member, that is one of many great reasons to join the club today. Another great reason is you can use coupon SAVE99 to save $99 off a Club or Club Ultra membership in the first year. However, the coupon will expire Tuesday so act now and join us for as little as C$200 plus tax in the first year. Click here to join us and protect yourself from Club price increases and more public site feature restrictions as we head towards fall.

One of the many benefits of a Club Ultra membership is full access to INK Ultra Money videos including today's Real Vision interview with global macro specialist Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group. He makes the case in an interview with Mike Green that the Washington consensus of favouring fiscal prudence and global markets that evolved from the Reagan and Thatcher years is being replaced by something he calls the Buenos Aires consensus. That is a consensus which is driven by popular politics and ends up with a world that looks like our G-economy which is characterized by government-led inflation.


Europe unites out of necessity

In this new world, government takes a bigger share of the pie and inflationary pressures build. Meanwhile, capital-spending makes a comeback along with European assets. It is also a world where US assets are likely to underperform on a global basis in part due to a weakening dollar. Mike Green and Marko end off the interview discussing the risk of a China-Taiwan conflict and implications for investment strategy.

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