INK Ultra Money: The Financial Analyst surplus and TINA

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On Wednesday, we published our bearish case for American stocks based on insider signals. Today, we have come across a strong bullish response from Tyler Neville who explains that some institutions really do not have any alternative but to buy right now. He makes three controversial points starting with the assumption that, like it or not, flows are driving the stock market rally.

  • TINA is s structural phenomenon at least right now (probably even past the US elections on November 3rd)
  • Boomer policy-makers have no choice put to inflate assets (and prices if necessary)
  • Three are too many fundamental analysts and not enough liquidity analysts

Will the structural TINA dynamic keep going? Neville makes the compelling case that ageing policymakers have no choice but to keep trying to inflate assets. That will keep real yields negative fueling a secular gold stock bull market.

Tesla and gold stocks are winning (free video)

Who makes the better case for the near-term direction of US markets? INK with its take on insider profit-taking or Tyler with his flow analysis? We would consider insiders as focusing on fundamentals and not flows. Consequently, we believe they are validating the fundamental bearish case. Whether flows trump the fundamentals remains to be seen. It is up to every investor to assign a probability to which outcome is more likely. For those who assign a non-zero probability to the bearish case, some form of protection heading into the fall seems to make some sense. Meanwhile, I agree with Tyler that we are in a precious metals stock bull market.

Of course, gold and silver stocks will not be immune to pullbacks. Silver stocks are particularly vulnerable to corrections when D-economy deflationary forces reassert themselves from time-to-time. To help investors monitor inflationary versus deflationary trends, we have launched a real-time gold-silver ratio on Canadian Insider. When the ratio is rising, gold is outperforming silver, favouring deflationary, defensive assets such as bonds and healthcare. As the ratio falls, silver is rising which supports the idea that inflation is overwhelming deflationary forces in the economy. In addition to commodities, that should be supportive of pro-inflationary stocks including oil & gas, industrials with pricing power, and insider stocks such as those tracked by the Horizons Cdn Insider Index ETF (HII).

With so much stimulus coming from the Fed and Capitol Hill, investors may be inclined to sideline the COVID-19 factor. INK believes that it is a mistake to ignore both the risks and opportunities associated with the virus. In the Thursday morning report, INK talks about how Protech Home Medical (PTQ) has a chance to make up some lost ground, click here to watch the premium video summary.

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Disclosure: INK Research provides indexing services for the Horizons Cdn Insider Index ETF and may receive a fee for those services.

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